Recent August polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show a tight contest for the top Senate spot in Rio Grande do Sul, with Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) leading numerically in several surveys while Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) remain within the margin of error. High undecided rates—often exceeding 35%—combined with voters selecting two candidates sustain the close implied probabilities in trader consensus. No dominant frontrunner has emerged, as name recognition and party dynamics keep multiple paths viable for first place. Late-campaign polling shifts, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could widen gaps before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Manuela D'Ávila 46%
Marcel Van Hattem 33%
Pimenta 9.0%
Rigotto 6.5%
$17,690 Vol.
$17,690 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
46%
Marcel Van Hattem
33%
Pimenta
11%
Rigotto
7%
Sanderson
2%
Tania Peres
2%
Regis Ethur
10%
Milton Cardoso
8%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
<1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Ric Jones
<1%
Manuela D'Ávila 46%
Marcel Van Hattem 33%
Pimenta 9.0%
Rigotto 6.5%
$17,690 Vol.
$17,690 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
$4,552 Vol.
46%
Marcel Van Hattem
$8,297 Vol.
33%
Pimenta
$1,185 Vol.
11%
Rigotto
$446 Vol.
7%
Sanderson
$469 Vol.
2%
Tania Peres
$420 Vol.
2%
Regis Ethur
$296 Vol.
10%
Milton Cardoso
$304 Vol.
8%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$330 Vol.
<1%
Frederico Antunes
$569 Vol.
<1%
Luciano do MLB
$277 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$269 Vol.
<1%
Ric Jones
$276 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show a tight contest for the top Senate spot in Rio Grande do Sul, with Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) leading numerically in several surveys while Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) remain within the margin of error. High undecided rates—often exceeding 35%—combined with voters selecting two candidates sustain the close implied probabilities in trader consensus. No dominant frontrunner has emerged, as name recognition and party dynamics keep multiple paths viable for first place. Late-campaign polling shifts, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could widen gaps before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$17,690End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show a tight contest for the top Senate spot in Rio Grande do Sul, with Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) leading numerically in several surveys while Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) remain within the margin of error. High undecided rates—often exceeding 35%—combined with voters selecting two candidates sustain the close implied probabilities in trader consensus. No dominant frontrunner has emerged, as name recognition and party dynamics keep multiple paths viable for first place. Late-campaign polling shifts, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could widen gaps before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,690End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show a tight contest for the top Senate spot in Rio Grande do Sul, with Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) leading numerically in several surveys while Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) remain within the margin of error. High undecided rates—often exceeding 35%—combined with voters selecting two candidates sustain the close implied probabilities in trader consensus. No dominant frontrunner has emerged, as name recognition and party dynamics keep multiple paths viable for first place. Late-campaign polling shifts, endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could widen gaps before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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