Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná polls for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and single-digit shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. The state's conservative southern electorate and bolsonarista base provide structural advantages, reinforced by the PL ticket's local alliance with Senator Sergio Moro. Traders price this regional strength into the 93.5% implied probability of a first-place finish, consistent with repeated polling margins that have held steady through August. Late developments such as unexpected voter shifts toward centrist alternatives or turnout surges among opposition blocs could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,887 Vol.
94%
Lula
$264 Vol.
5%
Renan Santos
$267 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$349 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$395 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$446 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$446 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$446 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$446 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$447 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$480 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$458 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$370 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná polls for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and single-digit shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. The state's conservative southern electorate and bolsonarista base provide structural advantages, reinforced by the PL ticket's local alliance with Senator Sergio Moro. Traders price this regional strength into the 93.5% implied probability of a first-place finish, consistent with repeated polling margins that have held steady through August. Late developments such as unexpected voter shifts toward centrist alternatives or turnout surges among opposition blocs could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,702End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná polls for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and single-digit shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. The state's conservative southern electorate and bolsonarista base provide structural advantages, reinforced by the PL ticket's local alliance with Senator Sergio Moro. Traders price this regional strength into the 93.5% implied probability of a first-place finish, consistent with repeated polling margins that have held steady through August. Late developments such as unexpected voter shifts toward centrist alternatives or turnout surges among opposition blocs could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers in the state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,702End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná polls for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30% and single-digit shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others. The state's conservative southern electorate and bolsonarista base provide structural advantages, reinforced by the PL ticket's local alliance with Senator Sergio Moro. Traders price this regional strength into the 93.5% implied probability of a first-place finish, consistent with repeated polling margins that have held steady through August. Late developments such as unexpected voter shifts toward centrist alternatives or turnout surges among opposition blocs could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers in the state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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