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Politics·Taiwan

Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner

Hsu Hsin-ying 83%

Cheng Chao-fang 18%

Lin Szu-ming <1%

Chen Chien-hsien <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Hsu Hsin-ying 83%

Cheng Chao-fang 18%

Lin Szu-ming <1%

Chen Chien-hsien <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Hsu Hsin-ying

Hsu Hsin-ying

$2,329 Vol.

83%

icon for Cheng Chao-fang

Cheng Chao-fang

$1,888 Vol.

18%

icon for Lin Szu-ming

Lin Szu-ming

$354 Vol.

1%

icon for Chen Chien-hsien

Chen Chien-hsien

$292 Vol.

<1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying secured the KMT nomination in March 2026 through a mixed primary system weighted toward public polls, positioning her as the frontrunner in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate race. Recent August surveys show her leading DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang by narrow margins in head-to-head matchups, bolstered by stronger support outside Zhubei and among older voters, while Cheng holds advantages in the county’s largest city and among college-educated residents. DPP recruitment of Cheng in June followed internal deliberations, yet KMT party infrastructure and geographic breadth have sustained trader consensus on Hsu’s elevated probability. Speculation around potential independent bids by figures like Chen Chien-hsien remains low-probability in current pricing, reflecting limited shifts in the three-month window to election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,864
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying secured the KMT nomination in March 2026 through a mixed primary system weighted toward public polls, positioning her as the frontrunner in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate race. Recent August surveys show her leading DPP nominee Cheng Chao-fang by narrow margins in head-to-head matchups, bolstered by stronger support outside Zhubei and among older voters, while Cheng holds advantages in the county’s largest city and among college-educated residents. DPP recruitment of Cheng in June followed internal deliberations, yet KMT party infrastructure and geographic breadth have sustained trader consensus on Hsu’s elevated probability. Speculation around potential independent bids by figures like Chen Chien-hsien remains low-probability in current pricing, reflecting limited shifts in the three-month window to election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,864
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hsu Hsin-ying" at 83%, followed by "Cheng Chao-fang" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Hsu Hsin-ying" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cheng Chao-fang" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.