**Persistent late-summer heat and elevated humidity have driven the strong market consensus toward an 86-87°F minimum in Dallas on August 26.** Official National Weather Service observations and recent model runs showed a continuation of the regional heat wave, with daytime highs reaching 101°F and dew points remaining high enough to limit nocturnal cooling. Historical climatology for late August places average lows near 76°F, but 2026 conditions featured consistently warmer nights, often in the low-to-mid 80s, due to warm air advection and limited clear-sky radiational cooling. Traders weighted these factors heavily, resulting in the 98.5% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin. A realistic scenario that could have challenged this outcome includes stronger-than-expected cold-front passage or significantly increased cloud cover and precipitation overnight, though neither materialized in the final data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on August 26?
86-87°F 99%
84-85°F 2%
79°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
$1,796 Vol.
$1,796 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
99%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 99%
84-85°F 2%
79°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
$1,796 Vol.
$1,796 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
79°F or below
$551 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$45 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$110 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$48 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$248 Vol.
99%
88-89°F
$229 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$41 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$154 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$25 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$35 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer heat and elevated humidity have driven the strong market consensus toward an 86-87°F minimum in Dallas on August 26.**
Official National Weather Service observations and recent model runs showed a continuation of the regional heat wave, with daytime highs reaching 101°F and dew points remaining high enough to limit nocturnal cooling. Historical climatology for late August places average lows near 76°F, but 2026 conditions featured consistently warmer nights, often in the low-to-mid 80s, due to warm air advection and limited clear-sky radiational cooling. Traders weighted these factors heavily, resulting in the 98.5% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin.
A realistic scenario that could have challenged this outcome includes stronger-than-expected cold-front passage or significantly increased cloud cover and precipitation overnight, though neither materialized in the final data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,796End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer heat and elevated humidity have driven the strong market consensus toward an 86-87°F minimum in Dallas on August 26.**
Official National Weather Service observations and recent model runs showed a continuation of the regional heat wave, with daytime highs reaching 101°F and dew points remaining high enough to limit nocturnal cooling. Historical climatology for late August places average lows near 76°F, but 2026 conditions featured consistently warmer nights, often in the low-to-mid 80s, due to warm air advection and limited clear-sky radiational cooling. Traders weighted these factors heavily, resulting in the 98.5% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin.
A realistic scenario that could have challenged this outcome includes stronger-than-expected cold-front passage or significantly increased cloud cover and precipitation overnight, though neither materialized in the final data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,796End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent late-summer heat and elevated humidity have driven the strong market consensus toward an 86-87°F minimum in Dallas on August 26.** Official National Weather Service observations and recent model runs showed a continuation of the regional heat wave, with daytime highs reaching 101°F and dew points remaining high enough to limit nocturnal cooling. Historical climatology for late August places average lows near 76°F, but 2026 conditions featured consistently warmer nights, often in the low-to-mid 80s, due to warm air advection and limited clear-sky radiational cooling. Traders weighted these factors heavily, resulting in the 98.5% implied probability for the 86-87°F bin. A realistic scenario that could have challenged this outcome includes stronger-than-expected cold-front passage or significantly increased cloud cover and precipitation overnight, though neither materialized in the final data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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