Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service have converged on a minimum temperature of 7°C for Munich on September 6, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. This reflects below-average conditions relative to the 1991–2020 climatological low of 11.4°C for the date, influenced by clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight under high pressure. Official station data and ensemble runs show limited spread, reinforcing trader confidence in this exact threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge in cloud cover or a shift in advection patterns that raises the overnight low by 1–2°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given current stability in guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 6?
7°C 99.5%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
8°C <1%
$2,512 Vol.
$2,512 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
100%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
7°C 99.5%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
8°C <1%
$2,512 Vol.
$2,512 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
5°C or below
$49 Vol.
1%
6°C
$750 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,015 Vol.
100%
8°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service have converged on a minimum temperature of 7°C for Munich on September 6, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. This reflects below-average conditions relative to the 1991–2020 climatological low of 11.4°C for the date, influenced by clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight under high pressure. Official station data and ensemble runs show limited spread, reinforcing trader confidence in this exact threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge in cloud cover or a shift in advection patterns that raises the overnight low by 1–2°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given current stability in guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,512End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service have converged on a minimum temperature of 7°C for Munich on September 6, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. This reflects below-average conditions relative to the 1991–2020 climatological low of 11.4°C for the date, influenced by clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight under high pressure. Official station data and ensemble runs show limited spread, reinforcing trader confidence in this exact threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge in cloud cover or a shift in advection patterns that raises the overnight low by 1–2°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given current stability in guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,512End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather observations and forecast model consensus from agencies like the German Weather Service have converged on a minimum temperature of 7°C for Munich on September 6, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. This reflects below-average conditions relative to the 1991–2020 climatological low of 11.4°C for the date, influenced by clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling overnight under high pressure. Official station data and ensemble runs show limited spread, reinforcing trader confidence in this exact threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late surge in cloud cover or a shift in advection patterns that raises the overnight low by 1–2°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given current stability in guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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