AfD maintains a consistent lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election polling at approximately 35–36 percent, several points ahead of the SPD at 28–29 percent, with the Linke, CDU, and smaller parties trailing further. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 20 vote for the 71-seat Landtag, where AfD support has held steady across multiple institutes since earlier in 2026 while the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition has seen modest recovery but remains behind. Traders assign AfD a 91 percent implied probability of finishing first, consistent with the party’s projected seat plurality under current trends. A reversal would require substantial late shifts in turnout or preferences among undecided voters in the final weeks, though recent surveys show limited movement. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD, leaving government formation prospects separate from the plurality outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 91%
SPD 8%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$570,829 Vol.
$570,829 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
91%
SPD
8%
Linke
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 91%
SPD 8%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$570,829 Vol.
$570,829 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
$121,136 Vol.
91%
SPD
$103,806 Vol.
8%
Linke
$27,668 Vol.
<1%
FW
$102,915 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$44,445 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$71,444 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$77,089 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$22,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD maintains a consistent lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election polling at approximately 35–36 percent, several points ahead of the SPD at 28–29 percent, with the Linke, CDU, and smaller parties trailing further. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 20 vote for the 71-seat Landtag, where AfD support has held steady across multiple institutes since earlier in 2026 while the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition has seen modest recovery but remains behind. Traders assign AfD a 91 percent implied probability of finishing first, consistent with the party’s projected seat plurality under current trends. A reversal would require substantial late shifts in turnout or preferences among undecided voters in the final weeks, though recent surveys show limited movement. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD, leaving government formation prospects separate from the plurality outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$570,829End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD maintains a consistent lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election polling at approximately 35–36 percent, several points ahead of the SPD at 28–29 percent, with the Linke, CDU, and smaller parties trailing further. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 20 vote for the 71-seat Landtag, where AfD support has held steady across multiple institutes since earlier in 2026 while the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition has seen modest recovery but remains behind. Traders assign AfD a 91 percent implied probability of finishing first, consistent with the party’s projected seat plurality under current trends. A reversal would require substantial late shifts in turnout or preferences among undecided voters in the final weeks, though recent surveys show limited movement. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD, leaving government formation prospects separate from the plurality outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$570,829End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD maintains a consistent lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election polling at approximately 35–36 percent, several points ahead of the SPD at 28–29 percent, with the Linke, CDU, and smaller parties trailing further. This positioning reflects sustained voter preferences ahead of the September 20 vote for the 71-seat Landtag, where AfD support has held steady across multiple institutes since earlier in 2026 while the incumbent SPD–Linke coalition has seen modest recovery but remains behind. Traders assign AfD a 91 percent implied probability of finishing first, consistent with the party’s projected seat plurality under current trends. A reversal would require substantial late shifts in turnout or preferences among undecided voters in the final weeks, though recent surveys show limited movement. Other parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD, leaving government formation prospects separate from the plurality outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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