Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern consistently places the AfD ahead of the incumbent SPD by roughly seven points, with the AfD at 35–36 percent and the SPD at 28–29 percent in August surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. This lead has held steady since spring, reflecting sustained support for the AfD in the eastern state ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The SPD–Left coalition government under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has seen its vote share decline from the 2021 result, while other parties remain well behind and face the five-percent threshold. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects the limited time remaining for any reversal. A late surge by the SPD or a sharp drop in AfD turnout could narrow the gap, though no such movement has appeared in the most recent fieldwork.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 91%
SPD 9%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$570,847 Vol.
$570,847 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
91%
SPD
9%
Linke
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 91%
SPD 9%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$570,847 Vol.
$570,847 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
AfD
$121,147 Vol.
91%
SPD
$103,813 Vol.
9%
Linke
$27,668 Vol.
<1%
FW
$102,915 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$44,445 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$71,444 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$77,089 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$22,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern consistently places the AfD ahead of the incumbent SPD by roughly seven points, with the AfD at 35–36 percent and the SPD at 28–29 percent in August surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. This lead has held steady since spring, reflecting sustained support for the AfD in the eastern state ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The SPD–Left coalition government under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has seen its vote share decline from the 2021 result, while other parties remain well behind and face the five-percent threshold. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects the limited time remaining for any reversal. A late surge by the SPD or a sharp drop in AfD turnout could narrow the gap, though no such movement has appeared in the most recent fieldwork.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$570,847End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern consistently places the AfD ahead of the incumbent SPD by roughly seven points, with the AfD at 35–36 percent and the SPD at 28–29 percent in August surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. This lead has held steady since spring, reflecting sustained support for the AfD in the eastern state ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The SPD–Left coalition government under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has seen its vote share decline from the 2021 result, while other parties remain well behind and face the five-percent threshold. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects the limited time remaining for any reversal. A late surge by the SPD or a sharp drop in AfD turnout could narrow the gap, though no such movement has appeared in the most recent fieldwork.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$570,847End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern consistently places the AfD ahead of the incumbent SPD by roughly seven points, with the AfD at 35–36 percent and the SPD at 28–29 percent in August surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. This lead has held steady since spring, reflecting sustained support for the AfD in the eastern state ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The SPD–Left coalition government under Minister President Manuela Schwesig has seen its vote share decline from the 2021 result, while other parties remain well behind and face the five-percent threshold. Trader consensus in the prediction market reflects the limited time remaining for any reversal. A late surge by the SPD or a sharp drop in AfD turnout could narrow the gap, though no such movement has appeared in the most recent fieldwork.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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