Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain faces Democrat Ray Pooley in Michigan’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with the race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. The district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index, rural and suburban composition across The Thumb and northern metro exurbs, and McClain’s 66.8 percent 2024 margin establish a durable partisan baseline. Both candidates secured unopposed August 4 primaries, and McClain’s substantial fundraising edge reinforces the structural advantage reflected in trader consensus near 94 percent. A Democratic upset would require a sharp national midterm shift, unusually strong turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets, or late developments altering the incumbent’s position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-09 House Election Winner
MI-09 House Election Winner
$33,678 Vol.
$33,678 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$33,678 Vol.
$33,678 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$27,111 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$6,567 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain faces Democrat Ray Pooley in Michigan’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with the race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. The district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index, rural and suburban composition across The Thumb and northern metro exurbs, and McClain’s 66.8 percent 2024 margin establish a durable partisan baseline. Both candidates secured unopposed August 4 primaries, and McClain’s substantial fundraising edge reinforces the structural advantage reflected in trader consensus near 94 percent. A Democratic upset would require a sharp national midterm shift, unusually strong turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets, or late developments altering the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$33,678End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain faces Democrat Ray Pooley in Michigan’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with the race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. The district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index, rural and suburban composition across The Thumb and northern metro exurbs, and McClain’s 66.8 percent 2024 margin establish a durable partisan baseline. Both candidates secured unopposed August 4 primaries, and McClain’s substantial fundraising edge reinforces the structural advantage reflected in trader consensus near 94 percent. A Democratic upset would require a sharp national midterm shift, unusually strong turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets, or late developments altering the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,678End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain faces Democrat Ray Pooley in Michigan’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with the race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. The district’s R+16 Partisan Voter Index, rural and suburban composition across The Thumb and northern metro exurbs, and McClain’s 66.8 percent 2024 margin establish a durable partisan baseline. Both candidates secured unopposed August 4 primaries, and McClain’s substantial fundraising edge reinforces the structural advantage reflected in trader consensus near 94 percent. A Democratic upset would require a sharp national midterm shift, unusually strong turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets, or late developments altering the incumbent’s position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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