The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate race stems from the recent formalization of candidacies by Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni under the PL ticket alongside Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection bid, alongside incumbent Esperidião Amin’s independent run on the PP. A late-August Quaest survey showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in the stimulated scenario, with more than 20% undecided and high rejection rates for several names. Bolsonaro’s late-2025 relocation from Rio de Janeiro and national profile create a split in the conservative electorate against Amin’s established local base and de Toni’s legislative record. Further polling shifts, campaign consolidation on the right, or turnout patterns among bolsonarista voters could widen gaps before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 31%
Carol de Toni 28%
Esperidião Amin 24.0%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado <1%
$23,610 Vol.
$23,610 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
31%
Carol de Toni
28%
Esperidião Amin
29%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Carol
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 31%
Carol de Toni 28%
Esperidião Amin 24.0%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado <1%
$23,610 Vol.
$23,610 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$6,723 Vol.
31%
Carol de Toni
$7,394 Vol.
28%
Esperidião Amin
$2,673 Vol.
29%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$1,088 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$761 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$562 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$643 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$666 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$540 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$770 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$680 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$645 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$465 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate race stems from the recent formalization of candidacies by Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni under the PL ticket alongside Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection bid, alongside incumbent Esperidião Amin’s independent run on the PP. A late-August Quaest survey showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in the stimulated scenario, with more than 20% undecided and high rejection rates for several names. Bolsonaro’s late-2025 relocation from Rio de Janeiro and national profile create a split in the conservative electorate against Amin’s established local base and de Toni’s legislative record. Further polling shifts, campaign consolidation on the right, or turnout patterns among bolsonarista voters could widen gaps before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$23,610End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate race stems from the recent formalization of candidacies by Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni under the PL ticket alongside Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection bid, alongside incumbent Esperidião Amin’s independent run on the PP. A late-August Quaest survey showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in the stimulated scenario, with more than 20% undecided and high rejection rates for several names. Bolsonaro’s late-2025 relocation from Rio de Janeiro and national profile create a split in the conservative electorate against Amin’s established local base and de Toni’s legislative record. Further polling shifts, campaign consolidation on the right, or turnout patterns among bolsonarista voters could widen gaps before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,610End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s 2026 Senate race stems from the recent formalization of candidacies by Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni under the PL ticket alongside Governor Jorginho Mello’s reelection bid, alongside incumbent Esperidião Amin’s independent run on the PP. A late-August Quaest survey showed Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in the stimulated scenario, with more than 20% undecided and high rejection rates for several names. Bolsonaro’s late-2025 relocation from Rio de Janeiro and national profile create a split in the conservative electorate against Amin’s established local base and de Toni’s legislative record. Further polling shifts, campaign consolidation on the right, or turnout patterns among bolsonarista voters could widen gaps before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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