**Strong Met Office data through mid-August underpins the 93% market-implied probability.** Provisional figures show the UK’s mean summer temperature (1 June–10 August) at 16.48°C—already 0.36°C above the 2025 record of 16.12°C and 1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—driven by England’s 18.19°C mean and repeated heatwaves, including a verified 38.0°C June maximum at Lingwood and multiple “tropical nights.” Only a substantial cool anomaly for the final three weeks could prevent a new record; current forecasts and the narrow remaining window make this outcome highly improbable. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the observed seasonal anomaly and the low likelihood of reversal before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
94% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
94% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Strong Met Office data through mid-August underpins the 93% market-implied probability.** Provisional figures show the UK’s mean summer temperature (1 June–10 August) at 16.48°C—already 0.36°C above the 2025 record of 16.12°C and 1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—driven by England’s 18.19°C mean and repeated heatwaves, including a verified 38.0°C June maximum at Lingwood and multiple “tropical nights.” Only a substantial cool anomaly for the final three weeks could prevent a new record; current forecasts and the narrow remaining window make this outcome highly improbable. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the observed seasonal anomaly and the low likelihood of reversal before official verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,178End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Strong Met Office data through mid-August underpins the 93% market-implied probability.** Provisional figures show the UK’s mean summer temperature (1 June–10 August) at 16.48°C—already 0.36°C above the 2025 record of 16.12°C and 1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—driven by England’s 18.19°C mean and repeated heatwaves, including a verified 38.0°C June maximum at Lingwood and multiple “tropical nights.” Only a substantial cool anomaly for the final three weeks could prevent a new record; current forecasts and the narrow remaining window make this outcome highly improbable. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the observed seasonal anomaly and the low likelihood of reversal before official verification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,178End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong Met Office data through mid-August underpins the 93% market-implied probability.** Provisional figures show the UK’s mean summer temperature (1 June–10 August) at 16.48°C—already 0.36°C above the 2025 record of 16.12°C and 1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—driven by England’s 18.19°C mean and repeated heatwaves, including a verified 38.0°C June maximum at Lingwood and multiple “tropical nights.” Only a substantial cool anomaly for the final three weeks could prevent a new record; current forecasts and the narrow remaining window make this outcome highly improbable. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the observed seasonal anomaly and the low likelihood of reversal before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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