The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the strong market consensus for "No," as these events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average according to USGS historical records, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event. No magnitude 8.0+ quakes have struck in 2026 through late August, and recent activity remains limited to isolated 7.0–7.7 events without precursors suggesting rapid escalation along major subduction zones. The brief window remaining before 2027 further lowers odds. While monitoring shows stable patterns, an unforeseen megathrust rupture in a high-strain region such as the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman subduction zones could still produce such an event if stress accumulation aligns with sudden slip.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% chance
$309,603 Vol.
$309,603 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$309,603 Vol.
$309,603 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the strong market consensus for "No," as these events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average according to USGS historical records, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event. No magnitude 8.0+ quakes have struck in 2026 through late August, and recent activity remains limited to isolated 7.0–7.7 events without precursors suggesting rapid escalation along major subduction zones. The brief window remaining before 2027 further lowers odds. While monitoring shows stable patterns, an unforeseen megathrust rupture in a high-strain region such as the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman subduction zones could still produce such an event if stress accumulation aligns with sudden slip.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$309,603End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the strong market consensus for "No," as these events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average according to USGS historical records, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event. No magnitude 8.0+ quakes have struck in 2026 through late August, and recent activity remains limited to isolated 7.0–7.7 events without precursors suggesting rapid escalation along major subduction zones. The brief window remaining before 2027 further lowers odds. While monitoring shows stable patterns, an unforeseen megathrust rupture in a high-strain region such as the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman subduction zones could still produce such an event if stress accumulation aligns with sudden slip.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$309,603End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the strong market consensus for "No," as these events occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average according to USGS historical records, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event. No magnitude 8.0+ quakes have struck in 2026 through late August, and recent activity remains limited to isolated 7.0–7.7 events without precursors suggesting rapid escalation along major subduction zones. The brief window remaining before 2027 further lowers odds. While monitoring shows stable patterns, an unforeseen megathrust rupture in a high-strain region such as the Cascadia or Sumatra-Andaman subduction zones could still produce such an event if stress accumulation aligns with sudden slip.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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