**Strong scientific consensus on the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the 93.6% market-implied probability for “No.”** USGS data show these megathrust events require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning 20–50 years or longer. No M9+ quake has occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and recent activity remains limited to an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 plus several M7–7.8 events in 2026, consistent with average annual rates of roughly one M8+ and far fewer at the highest magnitudes. With only months remaining until December 31, 2026, and no current USGS monitoring indicators of accelerating strain or foreshock sequences capable of triggering full-margin rupture, traders assign very low odds. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen rapid failure on a high-strain subduction segment, though probabilistic models place such an outcome well below 10% in this compressed window.