Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the 2026 presidential first round due to sustained regional strength in the Northeast, where recent Quaest polling shows him at 58% against 20% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for other names. High government approval at 66% in the state, combined with historical dominance in 2022 and recent federal investment announcements, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability. The first-round vote on October 4 could shift if undecided voters (around 11-16% in recent surveys) consolidate behind a consolidated opposition or if national campaign dynamics alter local turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Lula 96.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Zema
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Lula 96.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,150 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$504 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$467 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$467 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$387 Vol.
1%
Samara
$385 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$385 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$413 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$467 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$467 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$467 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$385 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$422 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the 2026 presidential first round due to sustained regional strength in the Northeast, where recent Quaest polling shows him at 58% against 20% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for other names. High government approval at 66% in the state, combined with historical dominance in 2022 and recent federal investment announcements, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability. The first-round vote on October 4 could shift if undecided voters (around 11-16% in recent surveys) consolidate behind a consolidated opposition or if national campaign dynamics alter local turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,365End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the 2026 presidential first round due to sustained regional strength in the Northeast, where recent Quaest polling shows him at 58% against 20% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for other names. High government approval at 66% in the state, combined with historical dominance in 2022 and recent federal investment announcements, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability. The first-round vote on October 4 could shift if undecided voters (around 11-16% in recent surveys) consolidate behind a consolidated opposition or if national campaign dynamics alter local turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,365End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the 2026 presidential first round due to sustained regional strength in the Northeast, where recent Quaest polling shows him at 58% against 20% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for other names. High government approval at 66% in the state, combined with historical dominance in 2022 and recent federal investment announcements, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability. The first-round vote on October 4 could shift if undecided voters (around 11-16% in recent surveys) consolidate behind a consolidated opposition or if national campaign dynamics alter local turnout patterns among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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