**Trader consensus heavily favoring 31°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on September 4 reflects alignment with long-term climatological normals from the Hong Kong Observatory, which list average daily maximums near 30.8–31.2°C for early September under typical subtropical high-pressure regimes.** Recent model runs and surface observations likely showed stable atmospheric conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover sustaining peak readings in that range before any localized showers developed. Historical analogs from similar early-September periods reinforce this baseline when no strong monsoon surge or tropical disturbance alters steering patterns. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include an earlier-than-expected arrival of a northeast monsoon or persistent heavy rain bands, which would cap daytime heating and keep maxima at or below 30°C. Updated post-event verification from official stations would resolve any remaining uncertainty in model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
31°C 95.0%
30°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$206,326 Vol.
$206,326 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
95%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 95.0%
30°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$206,326 Vol.
$206,326 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$16,110 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,388 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,120 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,273 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$15,349 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$29,475 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$32,370 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$49,833 Vol.
95%
32°C
$31,953 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$17,241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favoring 31°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on September 4 reflects alignment with long-term climatological normals from the Hong Kong Observatory, which list average daily maximums near 30.8–31.2°C for early September under typical subtropical high-pressure regimes.** Recent model runs and surface observations likely showed stable atmospheric conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover sustaining peak readings in that range before any localized showers developed. Historical analogs from similar early-September periods reinforce this baseline when no strong monsoon surge or tropical disturbance alters steering patterns.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include an earlier-than-expected arrival of a northeast monsoon or persistent heavy rain bands, which would cap daytime heating and keep maxima at or below 30°C. Updated post-event verification from official stations would resolve any remaining uncertainty in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$206,326End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favoring 31°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on September 4 reflects alignment with long-term climatological normals from the Hong Kong Observatory, which list average daily maximums near 30.8–31.2°C for early September under typical subtropical high-pressure regimes.** Recent model runs and surface observations likely showed stable atmospheric conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover sustaining peak readings in that range before any localized showers developed. Historical analogs from similar early-September periods reinforce this baseline when no strong monsoon surge or tropical disturbance alters steering patterns.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include an earlier-than-expected arrival of a northeast monsoon or persistent heavy rain bands, which would cap daytime heating and keep maxima at or below 30°C. Updated post-event verification from official stations would resolve any remaining uncertainty in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$206,326End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favoring 31°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on September 4 reflects alignment with long-term climatological normals from the Hong Kong Observatory, which list average daily maximums near 30.8–31.2°C for early September under typical subtropical high-pressure regimes.** Recent model runs and surface observations likely showed stable atmospheric conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover sustaining peak readings in that range before any localized showers developed. Historical analogs from similar early-September periods reinforce this baseline when no strong monsoon surge or tropical disturbance alters steering patterns. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include an earlier-than-expected arrival of a northeast monsoon or persistent heavy rain bands, which would cap daytime heating and keep maxima at or below 30°C. Updated post-event verification from official stations would resolve any remaining uncertainty in model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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