Recent model consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and ICON runs points to warm southwesterly advection under mostly clear skies, driving Munich's September 8 high into the 30–32°C range and underpinning the market's 48.5% and 34% implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 20.9°C and approaches but remains below the date's 29.6°C record, with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk supporting strong daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, though minor shifts in timing or moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C. Updated official Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance and the next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 8?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 8?
31°C 49%
32°C 35%
30°C 9%
33°C 5.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
9%
31°C
49%
32°C
35%
33°C
6%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
32°C 35%
30°C 9%
33°C 5.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
27°C or below
$49 Vol.
1%
28°C
$49 Vol.
1%
29°C
$62 Vol.
3%
30°C
$767 Vol.
9%
31°C
$875 Vol.
49%
32°C
$517 Vol.
35%
33°C
$127 Vol.
6%
34°C
$150 Vol.
3%
35°C
$57 Vol.
1%
36°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$418 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and ICON runs points to warm southwesterly advection under mostly clear skies, driving Munich's September 8 high into the 30–32°C range and underpinning the market's 48.5% and 34% implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 20.9°C and approaches but remains below the date's 29.6°C record, with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk supporting strong daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, though minor shifts in timing or moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C. Updated official Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance and the next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,348End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and ICON runs points to warm southwesterly advection under mostly clear skies, driving Munich's September 8 high into the 30–32°C range and underpinning the market's 48.5% and 34% implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 20.9°C and approaches but remains below the date's 29.6°C record, with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk supporting strong daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, though minor shifts in timing or moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C. Updated official Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance and the next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,348End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and ICON runs points to warm southwesterly advection under mostly clear skies, driving Munich's September 8 high into the 30–32°C range and underpinning the market's 48.5% and 34% implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 20.9°C and approaches but remains below the date's 29.6°C record, with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk supporting strong daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, though minor shifts in timing or moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C. Updated official Deutscher Wetterdienst guidance and the next model cycles will provide the key resolution signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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