Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to an overnight low in Amsterdam on August 28 likely falling between 14–17°C, driven by a shift to southwesterly flow bringing cooler maritime air behind a warm spell on the 27th, combined with increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–17°C, as small differences in the timing of any frontal passage or wind gusts can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 13°C at Schiphol, but current conditions favor a milder outcome relative to that baseline, with new model runs and official KNMI updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the 24-hour observation window used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
19°C 78%
16°C 47%
17°C 46%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
14%
14°C
41%
15°C
43%
16°C
47%
17°C
46%
18°C
42%
19°C
78%
20°C
12%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
1%
19°C 78%
16°C 47%
17°C 46%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
$32 Vol.
1%
13°C
$15 Vol.
14%
14°C
$26 Vol.
41%
15°C
$0 Vol.
43%
16°C
$0 Vol.
47%
17°C
$0 Vol.
46%
18°C
$0 Vol.
42%
19°C
$15 Vol.
78%
20°C
$10 Vol.
12%
21°C
$15 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$38 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to an overnight low in Amsterdam on August 28 likely falling between 14–17°C, driven by a shift to southwesterly flow bringing cooler maritime air behind a warm spell on the 27th, combined with increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–17°C, as small differences in the timing of any frontal passage or wind gusts can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 13°C at Schiphol, but current conditions favor a milder outcome relative to that baseline, with new model runs and official KNMI updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the 24-hour observation window used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to an overnight low in Amsterdam on August 28 likely falling between 14–17°C, driven by a shift to southwesterly flow bringing cooler maritime air behind a warm spell on the 27th, combined with increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–17°C, as small differences in the timing of any frontal passage or wind gusts can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 13°C at Schiphol, but current conditions favor a milder outcome relative to that baseline, with new model runs and official KNMI updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the 24-hour observation window used for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to an overnight low in Amsterdam on August 28 likely falling between 14–17°C, driven by a shift to southwesterly flow bringing cooler maritime air behind a warm spell on the 27th, combined with increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup keeps the market-implied odds tightly clustered around 15–17°C, as small differences in the timing of any frontal passage or wind gusts can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows near 13°C at Schiphol, but current conditions favor a milder outcome relative to that baseline, with new model runs and official KNMI updates expected to refine probabilities ahead of the 24-hour observation window used for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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