Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mild overnight period for Amsterdam on September 7, with minimum temperatures most likely ranging 14–16°C under southerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the closely bunched market-implied odds, where small differences in predicted low-level moisture, wind speeds around 3–5 m/s, and timing of any increased cloudiness can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 11–12°C provide context, but the current setup reflects warmer-than-normal advection ahead of a frontal system expected the following day. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for refinements in boundary-layer mixing and dew point trends that could resolve remaining uncertainty before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
13°C 50%
18°C 50%
16°C 35%
14°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
8%
12°C
7%
13°C
50%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
35%
17°C
27%
18°C
50%
19°C
7%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
7%
13°C 50%
18°C 50%
16°C 35%
14°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
7%
13°C
$0 Vol.
50%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
35%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mild overnight period for Amsterdam on September 7, with minimum temperatures most likely ranging 14–16°C under southerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the closely bunched market-implied odds, where small differences in predicted low-level moisture, wind speeds around 3–5 m/s, and timing of any increased cloudiness can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 11–12°C provide context, but the current setup reflects warmer-than-normal advection ahead of a frontal system expected the following day. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for refinements in boundary-layer mixing and dew point trends that could resolve remaining uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mild overnight period for Amsterdam on September 7, with minimum temperatures most likely ranging 14–16°C under southerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the closely bunched market-implied odds, where small differences in predicted low-level moisture, wind speeds around 3–5 m/s, and timing of any increased cloudiness can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 11–12°C provide context, but the current setup reflects warmer-than-normal advection ahead of a frontal system expected the following day. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for refinements in boundary-layer mixing and dew point trends that could resolve remaining uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a mild overnight period for Amsterdam on September 7, with minimum temperatures most likely ranging 14–16°C under southerly flow and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the closely bunched market-implied odds, where small differences in predicted low-level moisture, wind speeds around 3–5 m/s, and timing of any increased cloudiness can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 11–12°C provide context, but the current setup reflects warmer-than-normal advection ahead of a frontal system expected the following day. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for refinements in boundary-layer mixing and dew point trends that could resolve remaining uncertainty before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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