**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and others, point to an overnight low in Austin on September 8, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 70s°F (roughly 76–79°F), consistent with the market’s two leading bins at 28% and 27% implied probability.** Persistent high pressure, light southerly winds, and mostly clear skies are suppressing radiative cooling and maintaining elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term average of ~70°F for that date. These conditions stem from a continuation of late-summer warmth, with daytime highs forecast near 99°F and minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate overnight temperatures. Small differences among bins arise from model variations in exact wind speed, humidity, and the timing of any subtle boundary-layer changes that could nudge the low by a degree or two. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F or above 82°F would require an unexpected frontal passage or stronger mixing, neither of which is indicated in current guidance. Updated National Weather Service or model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 8?
74-75°F 50%
70-71°F 49%
72-73°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
69°F or below
18%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
50%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
3%
74-75°F 50%
70-71°F 49%
72-73°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
69°F or below
$96 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
50%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
20%
86-87°F
$24 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$42 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and others, point to an overnight low in Austin on September 8, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 70s°F (roughly 76–79°F), consistent with the market’s two leading bins at 28% and 27% implied probability.** Persistent high pressure, light southerly winds, and mostly clear skies are suppressing radiative cooling and maintaining elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term average of ~70°F for that date.
These conditions stem from a continuation of late-summer warmth, with daytime highs forecast near 99°F and minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate overnight temperatures. Small differences among bins arise from model variations in exact wind speed, humidity, and the timing of any subtle boundary-layer changes that could nudge the low by a degree or two. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F or above 82°F would require an unexpected frontal passage or stronger mixing, neither of which is indicated in current guidance. Updated National Weather Service or model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$162End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and others, point to an overnight low in Austin on September 8, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 70s°F (roughly 76–79°F), consistent with the market’s two leading bins at 28% and 27% implied probability.** Persistent high pressure, light southerly winds, and mostly clear skies are suppressing radiative cooling and maintaining elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term average of ~70°F for that date.
These conditions stem from a continuation of late-summer warmth, with daytime highs forecast near 99°F and minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate overnight temperatures. Small differences among bins arise from model variations in exact wind speed, humidity, and the timing of any subtle boundary-layer changes that could nudge the low by a degree or two. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F or above 82°F would require an unexpected frontal passage or stronger mixing, neither of which is indicated in current guidance. Updated National Weather Service or model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$162End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and others, point to an overnight low in Austin on September 8, 2026, in the mid-to-upper 70s°F (roughly 76–79°F), consistent with the market’s two leading bins at 28% and 27% implied probability.** Persistent high pressure, light southerly winds, and mostly clear skies are suppressing radiative cooling and maintaining elevated dew points, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term average of ~70°F for that date. These conditions stem from a continuation of late-summer warmth, with daytime highs forecast near 99°F and minimal cloud cover or precipitation to moderate overnight temperatures. Small differences among bins arise from model variations in exact wind speed, humidity, and the timing of any subtle boundary-layer changes that could nudge the low by a degree or two. Lower-probability outcomes below 74°F or above 82°F would require an unexpected frontal passage or stronger mixing, neither of which is indicated in current guidance. Updated National Weather Service or model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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