Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily minimum of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.9% consensus. Early September climatology features persistent subtropical ridge influence, warm regional sea surface temperatures near 28–29°C, and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling, producing typical overnight lows of 24–26°C. This outcome matches historical baselines and recent model guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling. Only an unexpected data revision from the primary station or a shift to a non-standard measurement site could alter resolution, though such changes remain improbable given established verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
26°C 99.5%
20°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,607 Vol.
$28,607 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.5%
20°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,607 Vol.
$28,607 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$1,964 Vol.
1%
21°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$558 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,574 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,705 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,876 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,940 Vol.
100%
27°C
$2,972 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,691 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily minimum of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.9% consensus. Early September climatology features persistent subtropical ridge influence, warm regional sea surface temperatures near 28–29°C, and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling, producing typical overnight lows of 24–26°C. This outcome matches historical baselines and recent model guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling. Only an unexpected data revision from the primary station or a shift to a non-standard measurement site could alter resolution, though such changes remain improbable given established verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$28,607End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily minimum of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.9% consensus. Early September climatology features persistent subtropical ridge influence, warm regional sea surface temperatures near 28–29°C, and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling, producing typical overnight lows of 24–26°C. This outcome matches historical baselines and recent model guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling. Only an unexpected data revision from the primary station or a shift to a non-standard measurement site could alter resolution, though such changes remain improbable given established verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,607End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily minimum of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.9% consensus. Early September climatology features persistent subtropical ridge influence, warm regional sea surface temperatures near 28–29°C, and light southerly flow that limits nocturnal cooling, producing typical overnight lows of 24–26°C. This outcome matches historical baselines and recent model guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling. Only an unexpected data revision from the primary station or a shift to a non-standard measurement site could alter resolution, though such changes remain improbable given established verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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