The market's overwhelming 99% consensus on a 27°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 5 reflects official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact low, consistent with regional weather patterns of patchy rain and overnight stabilization near that threshold. Recent observational data from the observatory's network showed temperatures bottoming at 27°C during early morning hours before rising into the upper 20s, aligning with typical early-September climatology where minima rarely dip below 26°C without stronger frontal influences. Trader positioning incorporates the high reliability of HKO station data for market resolution, with minimal model divergence in post-event analysis. Only an unlikely revision to raw observations or use of an alternative site could shift the outcome, given the clear recorded values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
27°C 99.0%
26°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$37,331 Vol.
$37,331 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
99%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.0%
26°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$37,331 Vol.
$37,331 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
20°C or below
$158 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,493 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4,518 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,974 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$15,650 Vol.
99%
28°C
$1,166 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$389 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 99% consensus on a 27°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 5 reflects official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact low, consistent with regional weather patterns of patchy rain and overnight stabilization near that threshold. Recent observational data from the observatory's network showed temperatures bottoming at 27°C during early morning hours before rising into the upper 20s, aligning with typical early-September climatology where minima rarely dip below 26°C without stronger frontal influences. Trader positioning incorporates the high reliability of HKO station data for market resolution, with minimal model divergence in post-event analysis. Only an unlikely revision to raw observations or use of an alternative site could shift the outcome, given the clear recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$37,331End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's overwhelming 99% consensus on a 27°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 5 reflects official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact low, consistent with regional weather patterns of patchy rain and overnight stabilization near that threshold. Recent observational data from the observatory's network showed temperatures bottoming at 27°C during early morning hours before rising into the upper 20s, aligning with typical early-September climatology where minima rarely dip below 26°C without stronger frontal influences. Trader positioning incorporates the high reliability of HKO station data for market resolution, with minimal model divergence in post-event analysis. Only an unlikely revision to raw observations or use of an alternative site could shift the outcome, given the clear recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,331End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 99% consensus on a 27°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 5 reflects official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that exact low, consistent with regional weather patterns of patchy rain and overnight stabilization near that threshold. Recent observational data from the observatory's network showed temperatures bottoming at 27°C during early morning hours before rising into the upper 20s, aligning with typical early-September climatology where minima rarely dip below 26°C without stronger frontal influences. Trader positioning incorporates the high reliability of HKO station data for market resolution, with minimal model divergence in post-event analysis. Only an unlikely revision to raw observations or use of an alternative site could shift the outcome, given the clear recorded values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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