Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate overnight lows on September 8 will likely settle in the upper 70s, with model consensus pointing to 77–81°F amid persistent southerly flow and high humidity from Gulf moisture. This warm pattern, typical for early September without significant cold-air advection or frontal passages, has elevated implied probabilities for the 78–79°F bin (37.5%) and adjacent 72–77°F ranges while capping odds for sub-72°F outcomes near 1%. Afternoon thunderstorm chances may slightly modulate radiational cooling, but historical averages near 74°F and recent upper-70s readings reinforce trader focus on the mid-to-upper 70s. Updated model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 8?
74-75°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
84-85°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84-85°F
49%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
84-85°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
$88 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
26%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
35%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$19 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
49%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
19%
88-89°F
$30 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$18 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate overnight lows on September 8 will likely settle in the upper 70s, with model consensus pointing to 77–81°F amid persistent southerly flow and high humidity from Gulf moisture. This warm pattern, typical for early September without significant cold-air advection or frontal passages, has elevated implied probabilities for the 78–79°F bin (37.5%) and adjacent 72–77°F ranges while capping odds for sub-72°F outcomes near 1%. Afternoon thunderstorm chances may slightly modulate radiational cooling, but historical averages near 74°F and recent upper-70s readings reinforce trader focus on the mid-to-upper 70s. Updated model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$155End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate overnight lows on September 8 will likely settle in the upper 70s, with model consensus pointing to 77–81°F amid persistent southerly flow and high humidity from Gulf moisture. This warm pattern, typical for early September without significant cold-air advection or frontal passages, has elevated implied probabilities for the 78–79°F bin (37.5%) and adjacent 72–77°F ranges while capping odds for sub-72°F outcomes near 1%. Afternoon thunderstorm chances may slightly modulate radiational cooling, but historical averages near 74°F and recent upper-70s readings reinforce trader focus on the mid-to-upper 70s. Updated model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$155End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate overnight lows on September 8 will likely settle in the upper 70s, with model consensus pointing to 77–81°F amid persistent southerly flow and high humidity from Gulf moisture. This warm pattern, typical for early September without significant cold-air advection or frontal passages, has elevated implied probabilities for the 78–79°F bin (37.5%) and adjacent 72–77°F ranges while capping odds for sub-72°F outcomes near 1%. Afternoon thunderstorm chances may slightly modulate radiational cooling, but historical averages near 74°F and recent upper-70s readings reinforce trader focus on the mid-to-upper 70s. Updated model runs and evening NWS briefings will refine these projections ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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