Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s lingering influence outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives the closely matched probabilities around 25–27 °C for Manila’s August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms and high humidity (85–95 %), limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping overnight lows near 26–27 °C. Moderate southwesterly winds (10–15 mph) further promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. A moderate-to-strong El Niño background favors somewhat suppressed convection overall, yet the active monsoon trough maintains the current pattern through the period. Model consensus and historical August climatology (typical lows 25–26 °C) support trader alignment near these values, with resolution hinging on whether heavier rain or clearer breaks develop overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 28?
26°C 50%
25°C 43%
27°C 43%
24°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
5%
24°C
42%
25°C
43%
26°C
50%
27°C
43%
28°C
41%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
4%
26°C 50%
25°C 43%
27°C 43%
24°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
21°C or below
$27 Vol.
2%
22°C
$27 Vol.
8%
23°C
$64 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
42%
25°C
$0 Vol.
43%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C
$0 Vol.
43%
28°C
$0 Vol.
41%
29°C
$37 Vol.
8%
30°C
$27 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s lingering influence outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives the closely matched probabilities around 25–27 °C for Manila’s August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms and high humidity (85–95 %), limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping overnight lows near 26–27 °C. Moderate southwesterly winds (10–15 mph) further promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. A moderate-to-strong El Niño background favors somewhat suppressed convection overall, yet the active monsoon trough maintains the current pattern through the period. Model consensus and historical August climatology (typical lows 25–26 °C) support trader alignment near these values, with resolution hinging on whether heavier rain or clearer breaks develop overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$208End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s lingering influence outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives the closely matched probabilities around 25–27 °C for Manila’s August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms and high humidity (85–95 %), limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping overnight lows near 26–27 °C. Moderate southwesterly winds (10–15 mph) further promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. A moderate-to-strong El Niño background favors somewhat suppressed convection overall, yet the active monsoon trough maintains the current pattern through the period. Model consensus and historical August climatology (typical lows 25–26 °C) support trader alignment near these values, with resolution hinging on whether heavier rain or clearer breaks develop overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$208End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s lingering influence outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives the closely matched probabilities around 25–27 °C for Manila’s August 28 minimum. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms and high humidity (85–95 %), limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and keeping overnight lows near 26–27 °C. Moderate southwesterly winds (10–15 mph) further promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. A moderate-to-strong El Niño background favors somewhat suppressed convection overall, yet the active monsoon trough maintains the current pattern through the period. Model consensus and historical August climatology (typical lows 25–26 °C) support trader alignment near these values, with resolution hinging on whether heavier rain or clearer breaks develop overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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