Current official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to a minimum of 12–14 °C tonight in Mexico City, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered heavy rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Historical September averages hover near 11–12 °C, yet the active wet pattern and light easterly winds are expected to moderate the drop. Model consensus shows only modest spread in the overnight low, with differences hinging on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture. This scientific uncertainty—typical for highland tropical sites during the rainy season—underpins the closely matched market-implied odds around 12–14 °C versus cooler thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
7°C or below 99%
8°C 91%
9°C 91%
10°C 91%
$245 Vol.
$245 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
99%
8°C
91%
9°C
91%
10°C
91%
11°C
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
48%
14°C
47%
15°C
47%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
7°C or below 99%
8°C 91%
9°C 91%
10°C 91%
$245 Vol.
$245 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
99%
8°C
$5 Vol.
91%
9°C
$5 Vol.
91%
10°C
$5 Vol.
91%
11°C
$30 Vol.
2%
12°C
$15 Vol.
3%
13°C
$11 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
47%
15°C
$8 Vol.
47%
16°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$56 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to a minimum of 12–14 °C tonight in Mexico City, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered heavy rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Historical September averages hover near 11–12 °C, yet the active wet pattern and light easterly winds are expected to moderate the drop. Model consensus shows only modest spread in the overnight low, with differences hinging on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture. This scientific uncertainty—typical for highland tropical sites during the rainy season—underpins the closely matched market-implied odds around 12–14 °C versus cooler thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$245End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to a minimum of 12–14 °C tonight in Mexico City, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered heavy rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Historical September averages hover near 11–12 °C, yet the active wet pattern and light easterly winds are expected to moderate the drop. Model consensus shows only modest spread in the overnight low, with differences hinging on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture. This scientific uncertainty—typical for highland tropical sites during the rainy season—underpins the closely matched market-implied odds around 12–14 °C versus cooler thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$245End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to a minimum of 12–14 °C tonight in Mexico City, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered heavy rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Historical September averages hover near 11–12 °C, yet the active wet pattern and light easterly winds are expected to moderate the drop. Model consensus shows only modest spread in the overnight low, with differences hinging on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture. This scientific uncertainty—typical for highland tropical sites during the rainy season—underpins the closely matched market-implied odds around 12–14 °C versus cooler thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions