Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate overnight lows in Mexico City near 13–14°C for September 7, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation and the ongoing rainy season. Scattered showers and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops while limiting daytime heat buildup. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–16°C, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model spread on precipitation timing and wind. Updated guidance on cloud thickness and any late-day clearing could quickly shift the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 7?
18°C or higher 60%
8°C or below 58%
17°C 49%
11°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
8°C or below
58%
9°C
17%
10°C
18%
11°C
47%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
36%
15°C
27%
16°C
28%
17°C
49%
18°C or higher
60%
18°C or higher 60%
8°C or below 58%
17°C 49%
11°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
58%
9°C
$0 Vol.
17%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
47%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
36%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate overnight lows in Mexico City near 13–14°C for September 7, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation and the ongoing rainy season. Scattered showers and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops while limiting daytime heat buildup. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–16°C, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model spread on precipitation timing and wind. Updated guidance on cloud thickness and any late-day clearing could quickly shift the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate overnight lows in Mexico City near 13–14°C for September 7, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation and the ongoing rainy season. Scattered showers and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops while limiting daytime heat buildup. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–16°C, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model spread on precipitation timing and wind. Updated guidance on cloud thickness and any late-day clearing could quickly shift the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate overnight lows in Mexico City near 13–14°C for September 7, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation and the ongoing rainy season. Scattered showers and variable cloud cover are expected to moderate radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops while limiting daytime heat buildup. This produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 13–16°C, with lower-probability tails for extremes reflecting model spread on precipitation timing and wind. Updated guidance on cloud thickness and any late-day clearing could quickly shift the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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