Traders see 8–10°C as the most probable range for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 6 because official forecasts and model guidance show nighttime minima clustered near the long-term average of 9.7°C. Persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and moderate westerly winds limit radiative cooling, while the Hydrometeorological Center’s projection of a 7°C overnight low competes with other guidance placing the minimum closer to 10–11°C. These small differences in timing and intensity of clearing or precipitation determine whether the mercury bottoms near 8°C, 9°C, or 10°C, keeping the three leading outcomes nearly even in market-implied odds. Updated evening observations and any late-model runs will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
8°C 99%
9°C 99%
6°C or below 1.0%
7°C 1.0%
$638 Vol.
$638 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
99%
9°C
99%
10°C
51%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
8°C 99%
9°C 99%
6°C or below 1.0%
7°C 1.0%
$638 Vol.
$638 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
$60 Vol.
1%
7°C
$60 Vol.
1%
8°C
$25 Vol.
99%
9°C
$30 Vol.
99%
10°C
$5 Vol.
51%
11°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 8–10°C as the most probable range for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 6 because official forecasts and model guidance show nighttime minima clustered near the long-term average of 9.7°C. Persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and moderate westerly winds limit radiative cooling, while the Hydrometeorological Center’s projection of a 7°C overnight low competes with other guidance placing the minimum closer to 10–11°C. These small differences in timing and intensity of clearing or precipitation determine whether the mercury bottoms near 8°C, 9°C, or 10°C, keeping the three leading outcomes nearly even in market-implied odds. Updated evening observations and any late-model runs will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$638End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 8–10°C as the most probable range for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 6 because official forecasts and model guidance show nighttime minima clustered near the long-term average of 9.7°C. Persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and moderate westerly winds limit radiative cooling, while the Hydrometeorological Center’s projection of a 7°C overnight low competes with other guidance placing the minimum closer to 10–11°C. These small differences in timing and intensity of clearing or precipitation determine whether the mercury bottoms near 8°C, 9°C, or 10°C, keeping the three leading outcomes nearly even in market-implied odds. Updated evening observations and any late-model runs will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$638End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 8–10°C as the most probable range for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 6 because official forecasts and model guidance show nighttime minima clustered near the long-term average of 9.7°C. Persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and moderate westerly winds limit radiative cooling, while the Hydrometeorological Center’s projection of a 7°C overnight low competes with other guidance placing the minimum closer to 10–11°C. These small differences in timing and intensity of clearing or precipitation determine whether the mercury bottoms near 8°C, 9°C, or 10°C, keeping the three leading outcomes nearly even in market-implied odds. Updated evening observations and any late-model runs will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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