Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature in Moscow on September 8 in the 6–8°C range, driven by northwest advection of cooler maritime polar air behind a passing front and clear to partly cloudy skies favoring nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. This follows a brief warm spell, with the overnight low expected near dawn when surface heat loss peaks. Ensemble spreads arise from slight differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September 8 averages near 9°C provide context, but the current pattern aligns with below-normal values typical of early-autumn cold outbreaks. Updated model runs and official observations from the Hydrometeorological Center will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 8?
11°C 47%
12°C 47%
7°C 36%
8°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
4°C or below
22%
5°C
26%
6°C
31%
7°C
36%
8°C
35%
9°C
25%
10°C
1%
11°C
47%
12°C
47%
13°C
8%
14°C or higher
22%
11°C 47%
12°C 47%
7°C 36%
8°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
22%
5°C
$11 Vol.
26%
6°C
$0 Vol.
31%
7°C
$0 Vol.
36%
8°C
$4 Vol.
35%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$150 Vol.
1%
11°C
$50 Vol.
47%
12°C
$200 Vol.
47%
13°C
$50 Vol.
8%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature in Moscow on September 8 in the 6–8°C range, driven by northwest advection of cooler maritime polar air behind a passing front and clear to partly cloudy skies favoring nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. This follows a brief warm spell, with the overnight low expected near dawn when surface heat loss peaks. Ensemble spreads arise from slight differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September 8 averages near 9°C provide context, but the current pattern aligns with below-normal values typical of early-autumn cold outbreaks. Updated model runs and official observations from the Hydrometeorological Center will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$465End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature in Moscow on September 8 in the 6–8°C range, driven by northwest advection of cooler maritime polar air behind a passing front and clear to partly cloudy skies favoring nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. This follows a brief warm spell, with the overnight low expected near dawn when surface heat loss peaks. Ensemble spreads arise from slight differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September 8 averages near 9°C provide context, but the current pattern aligns with below-normal values typical of early-autumn cold outbreaks. Updated model runs and official observations from the Hydrometeorological Center will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$465End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a minimum temperature in Moscow on September 8 in the 6–8°C range, driven by northwest advection of cooler maritime polar air behind a passing front and clear to partly cloudy skies favoring nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. This follows a brief warm spell, with the overnight low expected near dawn when surface heat loss peaks. Ensemble spreads arise from slight differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September 8 averages near 9°C provide context, but the current pattern aligns with below-normal values typical of early-autumn cold outbreaks. Updated model runs and official observations from the Hydrometeorological Center will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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