The parliamentary election on 27 September 2026 follows a July presidential contest in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD after his break with ADI, secured re-election in the first round with roughly 56% against an ADI-supported challenger. That outcome, alongside ADI’s internal leadership dispute involving Prime Minister Américo Ramos and the Patrice Trovoada faction, has shaped trader views on seat shares under the closed-list proportional system across the seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. ADI’s 79% implied probability for second place reflects its retained organizational strength and 30-seat base from 2022 despite the split, while MLSTP–PSD’s 10% and the sub-1% odds for MDFM, MCI-PS/PUN, Nossa Terra, Basta, and PCD track their smaller current delegations and limited recent momentum. No public polling has emerged since the presidential vote, leaving the contest open to last-minute shifts in turnout or coalition signals before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedADI 80%
MLSTP 11%
MDFM <1%
MCI-PS/PUN <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
80%
MLSTP
11%
MDFM
1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
ADI 80%
MLSTP 11%
MDFM <1%
MCI-PS/PUN <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
$3,257 Vol.
80%
MLSTP
$3,242 Vol.
11%
MDFM
$627 Vol.
1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$713 Vol.
<1%
Nossa Terra
$664 Vol.
<1%
Basta
$649 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$642 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.The parliamentary election on 27 September 2026 follows a July presidential contest in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD after his break with ADI, secured re-election in the first round with roughly 56% against an ADI-supported challenger. That outcome, alongside ADI’s internal leadership dispute involving Prime Minister Américo Ramos and the Patrice Trovoada faction, has shaped trader views on seat shares under the closed-list proportional system across the seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. ADI’s 79% implied probability for second place reflects its retained organizational strength and 30-seat base from 2022 despite the split, while MLSTP–PSD’s 10% and the sub-1% odds for MDFM, MCI-PS/PUN, Nossa Terra, Basta, and PCD track their smaller current delegations and limited recent momentum. No public polling has emerged since the presidential vote, leaving the contest open to last-minute shifts in turnout or coalition signals before ballots are cast.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$9,794End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.The parliamentary election on 27 September 2026 follows a July presidential contest in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD after his break with ADI, secured re-election in the first round with roughly 56% against an ADI-supported challenger. That outcome, alongside ADI’s internal leadership dispute involving Prime Minister Américo Ramos and the Patrice Trovoada faction, has shaped trader views on seat shares under the closed-list proportional system across the seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. ADI’s 79% implied probability for second place reflects its retained organizational strength and 30-seat base from 2022 despite the split, while MLSTP–PSD’s 10% and the sub-1% odds for MDFM, MCI-PS/PUN, Nossa Terra, Basta, and PCD track their smaller current delegations and limited recent momentum. No public polling has emerged since the presidential vote, leaving the contest open to last-minute shifts in turnout or coalition signals before ballots are cast.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$9,794End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The parliamentary election on 27 September 2026 follows a July presidential contest in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD after his break with ADI, secured re-election in the first round with roughly 56% against an ADI-supported challenger. That outcome, alongside ADI’s internal leadership dispute involving Prime Minister Américo Ramos and the Patrice Trovoada faction, has shaped trader views on seat shares under the closed-list proportional system across the seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. ADI’s 79% implied probability for second place reflects its retained organizational strength and 30-seat base from 2022 despite the split, while MLSTP–PSD’s 10% and the sub-1% odds for MDFM, MCI-PS/PUN, Nossa Terra, Basta, and PCD track their smaller current delegations and limited recent momentum. No public polling has emerged since the presidential vote, leaving the contest open to last-minute shifts in turnout or coalition signals before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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