São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary election, scheduled for 27 September 2026, features 55 seats elected by closed-list proportional representation across seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. MLSTP–PSD holds an 86% implied probability as the leading outcome, reflecting strong trader consensus following the July 2026 presidential election in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD, secured re-election in the first round with 55.9% against the ADI-supported challenger. ADI, which currently holds a 30-seat majority, sits at 15% amid ongoing internal leadership disputes and the president’s earlier dismissal of its prime minister. Smaller parties and coalitions, including MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register minimal probabilities near 0.1%, consistent with their limited recent national performance and the two-party dominance of recent cycles. No major new campaign developments have emerged in the past month to alter these positioning dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSão Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
MLSTP 86%
ADI 15%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$14,345 Vol.
$14,345 Vol.
Sep 26, 2026
MLSTP
86%
ADI
15%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
MDFM
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
MLSTP 86%
ADI 15%
Basta <1%
PCD <1%
$14,345 Vol.
$14,345 Vol.
Sep 26, 2026
MLSTP
$6,854 Vol.
86%
ADI
$4,477 Vol.
15%
Basta
$907 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$507 Vol.
<1%
MDFM
$527 Vol.
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$537 Vol.
<1%
Nossa Terra
$537 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary election, scheduled for 27 September 2026, features 55 seats elected by closed-list proportional representation across seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. MLSTP–PSD holds an 86% implied probability as the leading outcome, reflecting strong trader consensus following the July 2026 presidential election in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD, secured re-election in the first round with 55.9% against the ADI-supported challenger. ADI, which currently holds a 30-seat majority, sits at 15% amid ongoing internal leadership disputes and the president’s earlier dismissal of its prime minister. Smaller parties and coalitions, including MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register minimal probabilities near 0.1%, consistent with their limited recent national performance and the two-party dominance of recent cycles. No major new campaign developments have emerged in the past month to alter these positioning dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$14,345End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary election, scheduled for 27 September 2026, features 55 seats elected by closed-list proportional representation across seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. MLSTP–PSD holds an 86% implied probability as the leading outcome, reflecting strong trader consensus following the July 2026 presidential election in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD, secured re-election in the first round with 55.9% against the ADI-supported challenger. ADI, which currently holds a 30-seat majority, sits at 15% amid ongoing internal leadership disputes and the president’s earlier dismissal of its prime minister. Smaller parties and coalitions, including MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register minimal probabilities near 0.1%, consistent with their limited recent national performance and the two-party dominance of recent cycles. No major new campaign developments have emerged in the past month to alter these positioning dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$14,345End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary election, scheduled for 27 September 2026, features 55 seats elected by closed-list proportional representation across seven districts plus diaspora constituencies. MLSTP–PSD holds an 86% implied probability as the leading outcome, reflecting strong trader consensus following the July 2026 presidential election in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova, backed by MLSTP–PSD, secured re-election in the first round with 55.9% against the ADI-supported challenger. ADI, which currently holds a 30-seat majority, sits at 15% amid ongoing internal leadership disputes and the president’s earlier dismissal of its prime minister. Smaller parties and coalitions, including MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, PCD, MDFM, and Nossa Terra, register minimal probabilities near 0.1%, consistent with their limited recent national performance and the two-party dominance of recent cycles. No major new campaign developments have emerged in the past month to alter these positioning dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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