**High uncertainty in peak daytime highs stems from variable late-summer atmospheric patterns over the Black Rock Desert, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 24–27% across 86–97°F+ bins.** The event runs August 30–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the seasonal transition when regional high pressure can yield strong surface heating and large diurnal ranges, yet incoming troughs or increased cloud cover may cap maxima. Recent model guidance shows daytime highs near 82–93°F amid low precipitation chances and light winds, though wildfire smoke from nearby events like the Hawk Fire could subtly alter insolation. Historical August–September baselines feature average highs of ~90–95°F with occasional extremes above 100°F, but short-term forecast spread remains wide until closer to gate opening and daily NWS updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
87-88°F 26%
89-90°F 26%
91-92°F 25%
93-94°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
24%
87-88°F
26%
89-90°F
26%
91-92°F
25%
93-94°F
25%
95-96°F
25%
97°F or above
25%
87-88°F 26%
89-90°F 26%
91-92°F 25%
93-94°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
$0 Vol.
24%
87-88°F
$0 Vol.
26%
89-90°F
$0 Vol.
26%
91-92°F
$0 Vol.
25%
93-94°F
$0 Vol.
25%
95-96°F
$0 Vol.
25%
97°F or above
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). **High uncertainty in peak daytime highs stems from variable late-summer atmospheric patterns over the Black Rock Desert, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 24–27% across 86–97°F+ bins.** The event runs August 30–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the seasonal transition when regional high pressure can yield strong surface heating and large diurnal ranges, yet incoming troughs or increased cloud cover may cap maxima. Recent model guidance shows daytime highs near 82–93°F amid low precipitation chances and light winds, though wildfire smoke from nearby events like the Hawk Fire could subtly alter insolation. Historical August–September baselines feature average highs of ~90–95°F with occasional extremes above 100°F, but short-term forecast spread remains wide until closer to gate opening and daily NWS updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). **High uncertainty in peak daytime highs stems from variable late-summer atmospheric patterns over the Black Rock Desert, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 24–27% across 86–97°F+ bins.** The event runs August 30–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the seasonal transition when regional high pressure can yield strong surface heating and large diurnal ranges, yet incoming troughs or increased cloud cover may cap maxima. Recent model guidance shows daytime highs near 82–93°F amid low precipitation chances and light winds, though wildfire smoke from nearby events like the Hawk Fire could subtly alter insolation. Historical August–September baselines feature average highs of ~90–95°F with occasional extremes above 100°F, but short-term forecast spread remains wide until closer to gate opening and daily NWS updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**High uncertainty in peak daytime highs stems from variable late-summer atmospheric patterns over the Black Rock Desert, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 24–27% across 86–97°F+ bins.** The event runs August 30–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the seasonal transition when regional high pressure can yield strong surface heating and large diurnal ranges, yet incoming troughs or increased cloud cover may cap maxima. Recent model guidance shows daytime highs near 82–93°F amid low precipitation chances and light winds, though wildfire smoke from nearby events like the Hawk Fire could subtly alter insolation. Historical August–September baselines feature average highs of ~90–95°F with occasional extremes above 100°F, but short-term forecast spread remains wide until closer to gate opening and daily NWS updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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