Forecast models from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a minimum temperature in Busan on August 28 likely between 24–26°C, driven by persistent warm, humid air masses from the North Pacific high combined with widespread cloud cover and thunderstorms that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent runs show slight downward revisions in overnight lows due to increased precipitation and southeasterly flow, aligning with historical late-August averages near 23–25°C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–26°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and rainfall timing, while lower probabilities for 22°C or below stem from the absence of strong cold-air advection and elevated dew points near 24–26°C that suppress further drops. Updated ensemble guidance expected within 48 hours could shift these narrow margins.