Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for Houston indicate clear skies and light southeast winds overnight into August 29, supporting radiative cooling under high pressure with dew points near 75°F that limit further drops. This setup favors an overnight low in the upper 70s, consistent with late-summer climatology where minimum temperatures rarely fall below 75°F absent stronger advection or cloud cover. Model consensus shows minimal spread in boundary-layer conditions, yet the closely matched market-implied odds around 24–25% for 72–85°F bins reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects versus the 32% implied for 86°F+, which would require an atypical stalled warm front. Updated model runs tonight will refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 29?
86°F or higher 68%
67°F or below 54%
78-79°F 51%
72-73°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
67°F or below
54%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
33%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
51%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
68%
86°F or higher 68%
67°F or below 54%
78-79°F 51%
72-73°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
54%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
19%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
33%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
51%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for Houston indicate clear skies and light southeast winds overnight into August 29, supporting radiative cooling under high pressure with dew points near 75°F that limit further drops. This setup favors an overnight low in the upper 70s, consistent with late-summer climatology where minimum temperatures rarely fall below 75°F absent stronger advection or cloud cover. Model consensus shows minimal spread in boundary-layer conditions, yet the closely matched market-implied odds around 24–25% for 72–85°F bins reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects versus the 32% implied for 86°F+, which would require an atypical stalled warm front. Updated model runs tonight will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for Houston indicate clear skies and light southeast winds overnight into August 29, supporting radiative cooling under high pressure with dew points near 75°F that limit further drops. This setup favors an overnight low in the upper 70s, consistent with late-summer climatology where minimum temperatures rarely fall below 75°F absent stronger advection or cloud cover. Model consensus shows minimal spread in boundary-layer conditions, yet the closely matched market-implied odds around 24–25% for 72–85°F bins reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects versus the 32% implied for 86°F+, which would require an atypical stalled warm front. Updated model runs tonight will refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for Houston indicate clear skies and light southeast winds overnight into August 29, supporting radiative cooling under high pressure with dew points near 75°F that limit further drops. This setup favors an overnight low in the upper 70s, consistent with late-summer climatology where minimum temperatures rarely fall below 75°F absent stronger advection or cloud cover. Model consensus shows minimal spread in boundary-layer conditions, yet the closely matched market-implied odds around 24–25% for 72–85°F bins reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects versus the 32% implied for 86°F+, which would require an atypical stalled warm front. Updated model runs tonight will refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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