**Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a typical late-August marine-influenced night for San Francisco on August 29, with the daily minimum expected in the mid-50s.** Onshore westerly flow, combined with a strengthening pressure gradient, supports partly cloudy to clear conditions after any morning marine layer, allowing radiational cooling under light winds. This aligns with climatological averages near 56°F and recent model consensus showing lows of 55–56°F at key stations such as San Francisco International Airport. The market’s tight clustering around 56–59°F reflects high confidence in this range from official forecasts, while elevated probability on 49°F or below captures residual uncertainty from microclimate variations, potential fog persistence, or slight model spreads in overnight minimums. Breezy conditions (10–20 mph) and low precipitation risk further stabilize the outlook ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
49°F or below 61%
68°F or higher 58%
50-51°F 49%
52-53°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
61%
50-51°F
49%
52-53°F
49%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
39%
58-59°F
35%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
21%
68°F or higher
58%
49°F or below 61%
68°F or higher 58%
50-51°F 49%
52-53°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
61%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
49%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
49%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
39%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
35%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
21%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a typical late-August marine-influenced night for San Francisco on August 29, with the daily minimum expected in the mid-50s.** Onshore westerly flow, combined with a strengthening pressure gradient, supports partly cloudy to clear conditions after any morning marine layer, allowing radiational cooling under light winds. This aligns with climatological averages near 56°F and recent model consensus showing lows of 55–56°F at key stations such as San Francisco International Airport.
The market’s tight clustering around 56–59°F reflects high confidence in this range from official forecasts, while elevated probability on 49°F or below captures residual uncertainty from microclimate variations, potential fog persistence, or slight model spreads in overnight minimums. Breezy conditions (10–20 mph) and low precipitation risk further stabilize the outlook ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a typical late-August marine-influenced night for San Francisco on August 29, with the daily minimum expected in the mid-50s.** Onshore westerly flow, combined with a strengthening pressure gradient, supports partly cloudy to clear conditions after any morning marine layer, allowing radiational cooling under light winds. This aligns with climatological averages near 56°F and recent model consensus showing lows of 55–56°F at key stations such as San Francisco International Airport.
The market’s tight clustering around 56–59°F reflects high confidence in this range from official forecasts, while elevated probability on 49°F or below captures residual uncertainty from microclimate variations, potential fog persistence, or slight model spreads in overnight minimums. Breezy conditions (10–20 mph) and low precipitation risk further stabilize the outlook ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a typical late-August marine-influenced night for San Francisco on August 29, with the daily minimum expected in the mid-50s.** Onshore westerly flow, combined with a strengthening pressure gradient, supports partly cloudy to clear conditions after any morning marine layer, allowing radiational cooling under light winds. This aligns with climatological averages near 56°F and recent model consensus showing lows of 55–56°F at key stations such as San Francisco International Airport. The market’s tight clustering around 56–59°F reflects high confidence in this range from official forecasts, while elevated probability on 49°F or below captures residual uncertainty from microclimate variations, potential fog persistence, or slight model spreads in overnight minimums. Breezy conditions (10–20 mph) and low precipitation risk further stabilize the outlook ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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