Forecast uncertainty across ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models is driving the closely matched market odds for Milan's August 30 minimum temperature, with no single bucket dominating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley supports clear skies and light winds that permit modest nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the current warm air mass keeps overnight lows anchored near 20–21 °C according to latest guidance. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the differentiation among the 17–23 °C outcomes, while the elevated probability on 14 °C or below reflects tail-risk scenarios of stronger advection or measurement timing. Updated model cycles and official Italian meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 30?
14°C or below 66%
24°C or higher 56%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
66%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
49%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C
49%
23°C
49%
24°C or higher
56%
14°C or below 66%
24°C or higher 56%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
66%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty across ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models is driving the closely matched market odds for Milan's August 30 minimum temperature, with no single bucket dominating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley supports clear skies and light winds that permit modest nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the current warm air mass keeps overnight lows anchored near 20–21 °C according to latest guidance. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the differentiation among the 17–23 °C outcomes, while the elevated probability on 14 °C or below reflects tail-risk scenarios of stronger advection or measurement timing. Updated model cycles and official Italian meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty across ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models is driving the closely matched market odds for Milan's August 30 minimum temperature, with no single bucket dominating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley supports clear skies and light winds that permit modest nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the current warm air mass keeps overnight lows anchored near 20–21 °C according to latest guidance. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the differentiation among the 17–23 °C outcomes, while the elevated probability on 14 °C or below reflects tail-risk scenarios of stronger advection or measurement timing. Updated model cycles and official Italian meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty across ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models is driving the closely matched market odds for Milan's August 30 minimum temperature, with no single bucket dominating. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Po Valley supports clear skies and light winds that permit modest nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the current warm air mass keeps overnight lows anchored near 20–21 °C according to latest guidance. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the differentiation among the 17–23 °C outcomes, while the elevated probability on 14 °C or below reflects tail-risk scenarios of stronger advection or measurement timing. Updated model cycles and official Italian meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours are the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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