Recent ensemble forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight lows of 20–22°C for Istanbul on August 30 under high pressure and mostly clear skies, with light northeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling and keeping the minimum above seasonal extremes. This consensus underpins the 34.5% market-implied probability on 26°C or higher while sustaining support for 21°C and 22°C outcomes near 25% each. Minor model spread in boundary-layer humidity and exact wind speeds creates the observed clustering around 17–25°C bins, reflecting typical late-summer variability rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine the precise threshold as the short-range window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 30?
26°C or higher 69%
16°C or below 50%
19°C 50%
20°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
50%
17°C
45%
18°C
47%
19°C
50%
20°C
50%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
50%
25°C
50%
26°C or higher
69%
26°C or higher 69%
16°C or below 50%
19°C 50%
20°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
45%
18°C
$0 Vol.
47%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
50%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
50%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight lows of 20–22°C for Istanbul on August 30 under high pressure and mostly clear skies, with light northeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling and keeping the minimum above seasonal extremes. This consensus underpins the 34.5% market-implied probability on 26°C or higher while sustaining support for 21°C and 22°C outcomes near 25% each. Minor model spread in boundary-layer humidity and exact wind speeds creates the observed clustering around 17–25°C bins, reflecting typical late-summer variability rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine the precise threshold as the short-range window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight lows of 20–22°C for Istanbul on August 30 under high pressure and mostly clear skies, with light northeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling and keeping the minimum above seasonal extremes. This consensus underpins the 34.5% market-implied probability on 26°C or higher while sustaining support for 21°C and 22°C outcomes near 25% each. Minor model spread in boundary-layer humidity and exact wind speeds creates the observed clustering around 17–25°C bins, reflecting typical late-summer variability rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine the precise threshold as the short-range window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight lows of 20–22°C for Istanbul on August 30 under high pressure and mostly clear skies, with light northeasterly winds limiting radiative cooling and keeping the minimum above seasonal extremes. This consensus underpins the 34.5% market-implied probability on 26°C or higher while sustaining support for 21°C and 22°C outcomes near 25% each. Minor model spread in boundary-layer humidity and exact wind speeds creates the observed clustering around 17–25°C bins, reflecting typical late-summer variability rather than any sharp synoptic shift. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine the precise threshold as the short-range window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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