Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European models show notable divergence for Moscow's overnight low on August 30, with projected minima ranging from 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow to potentially 14–15°C if clouds limit radiative cooling. This uncertainty, amplified by evolving high-pressure influences and variable model consensus on boundary-layer mixing, underpins the near-even market split between outcomes at or below 5°C and at or above 15°C. Southerly winds may advect milder air, while clearer intervals could enhance nocturnal heat loss, keeping specific temperature bins clustered near 25% implied probability. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
15°C or higher 97%
5°C or below 94%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
94%
6°C
49%
7°C
49%
8°C
50%
9°C
50%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
50%
13°C
50%
14°C
50%
15°C or higher
97%
15°C or higher 97%
5°C or below 94%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
49%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
50%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European models show notable divergence for Moscow's overnight low on August 30, with projected minima ranging from 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow to potentially 14–15°C if clouds limit radiative cooling. This uncertainty, amplified by evolving high-pressure influences and variable model consensus on boundary-layer mixing, underpins the near-even market split between outcomes at or below 5°C and at or above 15°C. Southerly winds may advect milder air, while clearer intervals could enhance nocturnal heat loss, keeping specific temperature bins clustered near 25% implied probability. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European models show notable divergence for Moscow's overnight low on August 30, with projected minima ranging from 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow to potentially 14–15°C if clouds limit radiative cooling. This uncertainty, amplified by evolving high-pressure influences and variable model consensus on boundary-layer mixing, underpins the near-even market split between outcomes at or below 5°C and at or above 15°C. Southerly winds may advect milder air, while clearer intervals could enhance nocturnal heat loss, keeping specific temperature bins clustered near 25% implied probability. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European models show notable divergence for Moscow's overnight low on August 30, with projected minima ranging from 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and southerly flow to potentially 14–15°C if clouds limit radiative cooling. This uncertainty, amplified by evolving high-pressure influences and variable model consensus on boundary-layer mixing, underpins the near-even market split between outcomes at or below 5°C and at or above 15°C. Southerly winds may advect milder air, while clearer intervals could enhance nocturnal heat loss, keeping specific temperature bins clustered near 25% implied probability. Updated ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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