Recent global model guidance from sources including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles shows Moscow’s overnight minimum on August 28 likely falling between 8–11 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 7–10 °C. Light northerly to northwesterly winds of 2–5 m/s and generally clear or partly cloudy skies favor strong radiative cooling after sunset, while dew points near 8–10 °C limit further drops. Ensemble spread arises mainly from small differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing; a few members dip to 7 °C or below under clearer conditions, while others stay near 10–11 °C if residual moisture or light winds persist. Historical climatology places the August 28 average low at 11.3 °C, so the current consensus reflects modest late-summer cooling under stable high pressure. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 28th will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 28?
9°C 45%
10°C 45%
11°C 45%
7°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
6°C or below
18%
7°C
44%
8°C
44%
9°C
45%
10°C
45%
11°C
45%
12°C
26%
13°C
8%
14°C
6%
15°C
5%
16°C or higher
1%
9°C 45%
10°C 45%
11°C 45%
7°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
6°C or below
$169 Vol.
18%
7°C
$6 Vol.
44%
8°C
$0 Vol.
44%
9°C
$0 Vol.
45%
10°C
$0 Vol.
45%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$10 Vol.
8%
14°C
$42 Vol.
6%
15°C
$42 Vol.
5%
16°C or higher
$42 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global model guidance from sources including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles shows Moscow’s overnight minimum on August 28 likely falling between 8–11 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 7–10 °C. Light northerly to northwesterly winds of 2–5 m/s and generally clear or partly cloudy skies favor strong radiative cooling after sunset, while dew points near 8–10 °C limit further drops. Ensemble spread arises mainly from small differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing; a few members dip to 7 °C or below under clearer conditions, while others stay near 10–11 °C if residual moisture or light winds persist. Historical climatology places the August 28 average low at 11.3 °C, so the current consensus reflects modest late-summer cooling under stable high pressure. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 28th will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$312End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global model guidance from sources including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles shows Moscow’s overnight minimum on August 28 likely falling between 8–11 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 7–10 °C. Light northerly to northwesterly winds of 2–5 m/s and generally clear or partly cloudy skies favor strong radiative cooling after sunset, while dew points near 8–10 °C limit further drops. Ensemble spread arises mainly from small differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing; a few members dip to 7 °C or below under clearer conditions, while others stay near 10–11 °C if residual moisture or light winds persist. Historical climatology places the August 28 average low at 11.3 °C, so the current consensus reflects modest late-summer cooling under stable high pressure. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 28th will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$312End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global model guidance from sources including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles shows Moscow’s overnight minimum on August 28 likely falling between 8–11 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 7–10 °C. Light northerly to northwesterly winds of 2–5 m/s and generally clear or partly cloudy skies favor strong radiative cooling after sunset, while dew points near 8–10 °C limit further drops. Ensemble spread arises mainly from small differences in cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing; a few members dip to 7 °C or below under clearer conditions, while others stay near 10–11 °C if residual moisture or light winds persist. Historical climatology places the August 28 average low at 11.3 °C, so the current consensus reflects modest late-summer cooling under stable high pressure. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 28th will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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