Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a northerly flow will bring cooler maritime air and scattered showers to Istanbul on August 28, driving minimum temperatures into the 18–22°C range and creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 20–22°C. This represents a notable drop from recent daily lows near 22–23°C under clearer, warmer conditions. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and coverage of overnight cloud and precipitation, which modulate radiative cooling, alongside local wind patterns and the strength of the urban heat island effect. Updated runs from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles will likely refine the exact minimum as the event nears.