**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26, 2026, centers on 13°C as the dominant outcome (85% implied probability), with notable support for 9°C or below (44%) and 12°C (39%).** This reflects strong consensus from official forecasts and typical seasonal patterns at the city's high elevation of approximately 2,300 meters. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and multiple models consistently projected a minimum of 13–15°C for the date, driven by moderate cloud cover, light rain or thunderstorms, and northwest winds during the overnight period that limited radiative cooling. Historical August baselines for Mexico City average around 10–12°C for overnight lows amid the rainy season, but recent observations through late August showed slightly warmer conditions (13–14°C range) due to persistent humidity and limited clear-sky nights. Uncertainty around cooler microclimates in higher-elevation boroughs (such as Cuajimalpa or Tlalpan) supports the secondary probability for sub-10°C readings, though official city-wide measurements aligned closely with the 13°C forecast. No major cold fronts or anomalous atmospheric shifts occurred in the preceding days to alter model runs, keeping probabilities anchored to verified observational trends and agency guidance. Upcoming resolution will depend on final verified data from central stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
9°C or below 83%
13°C 53.5%
10°C 46%
12°C 46%
$2,354 Vol.
$2,354 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
83%
10°C
46%
11°C
3%
12°C
46%
13°C
54%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
9°C or below 83%
13°C 53.5%
10°C 46%
12°C 46%
$2,354 Vol.
$2,354 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
83%
10°C
$31 Vol.
46%
11°C
$15 Vol.
3%
12°C
$15 Vol.
46%
13°C
$361 Vol.
54%
14°C
$107 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$256 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$1,183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26, 2026, centers on 13°C as the dominant outcome (85% implied probability), with notable support for 9°C or below (44%) and 12°C (39%).** This reflects strong consensus from official forecasts and typical seasonal patterns at the city's high elevation of approximately 2,300 meters.
The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and multiple models consistently projected a minimum of 13–15°C for the date, driven by moderate cloud cover, light rain or thunderstorms, and northwest winds during the overnight period that limited radiative cooling. Historical August baselines for Mexico City average around 10–12°C for overnight lows amid the rainy season, but recent observations through late August showed slightly warmer conditions (13–14°C range) due to persistent humidity and limited clear-sky nights.
Uncertainty around cooler microclimates in higher-elevation boroughs (such as Cuajimalpa or Tlalpan) supports the secondary probability for sub-10°C readings, though official city-wide measurements aligned closely with the 13°C forecast. No major cold fronts or anomalous atmospheric shifts occurred in the preceding days to alter model runs, keeping probabilities anchored to verified observational trends and agency guidance. Upcoming resolution will depend on final verified data from central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,354End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26, 2026, centers on 13°C as the dominant outcome (85% implied probability), with notable support for 9°C or below (44%) and 12°C (39%).** This reflects strong consensus from official forecasts and typical seasonal patterns at the city's high elevation of approximately 2,300 meters.
The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and multiple models consistently projected a minimum of 13–15°C for the date, driven by moderate cloud cover, light rain or thunderstorms, and northwest winds during the overnight period that limited radiative cooling. Historical August baselines for Mexico City average around 10–12°C for overnight lows amid the rainy season, but recent observations through late August showed slightly warmer conditions (13–14°C range) due to persistent humidity and limited clear-sky nights.
Uncertainty around cooler microclimates in higher-elevation boroughs (such as Cuajimalpa or Tlalpan) supports the secondary probability for sub-10°C readings, though official city-wide measurements aligned closely with the 13°C forecast. No major cold fronts or anomalous atmospheric shifts occurred in the preceding days to alter model runs, keeping probabilities anchored to verified observational trends and agency guidance. Upcoming resolution will depend on final verified data from central stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,354End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26, 2026, centers on 13°C as the dominant outcome (85% implied probability), with notable support for 9°C or below (44%) and 12°C (39%).** This reflects strong consensus from official forecasts and typical seasonal patterns at the city's high elevation of approximately 2,300 meters. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and multiple models consistently projected a minimum of 13–15°C for the date, driven by moderate cloud cover, light rain or thunderstorms, and northwest winds during the overnight period that limited radiative cooling. Historical August baselines for Mexico City average around 10–12°C for overnight lows amid the rainy season, but recent observations through late August showed slightly warmer conditions (13–14°C range) due to persistent humidity and limited clear-sky nights. Uncertainty around cooler microclimates in higher-elevation boroughs (such as Cuajimalpa or Tlalpan) supports the secondary probability for sub-10°C readings, though official city-wide measurements aligned closely with the 13°C forecast. No major cold fronts or anomalous atmospheric shifts occurred in the preceding days to alter model runs, keeping probabilities anchored to verified observational trends and agency guidance. Upcoming resolution will depend on final verified data from central stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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