**Official observations from São Paulo’s primary meteorological station recorded a minimum temperature of 16°C on August 26, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-event forecast consensus and driving the near-certain 99.6% market-implied probability.** Mild winter conditions prevailed with light northerly winds, moderate humidity, and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage that would typically lower overnight temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–16°C. Multiple model runs and station reports converged on this value, with hourly data showing the lowest readings clustered near 16°C during pre-dawn hours. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-event data revisions by INMET or station-specific discrepancies, though current verification supports the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 26?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,726 Vol.
$2,726 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,726 Vol.
$2,726 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$736 Vol.
No
11°C
$40 Vol.
No
12°C
$99 Vol.
No
13°C
$118 Vol.
No
14°C
$141 Vol.
No
15°C
$79 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,105 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$242 Vol.
No
18°C
$72 Vol.
No
19°C
$50 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$45 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from São Paulo’s primary meteorological station recorded a minimum temperature of 16°C on August 26, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-event forecast consensus and driving the near-certain 99.6% market-implied probability.**
Mild winter conditions prevailed with light northerly winds, moderate humidity, and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage that would typically lower overnight temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–16°C. Multiple model runs and station reports converged on this value, with hourly data showing the lowest readings clustered near 16°C during pre-dawn hours.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-event data revisions by INMET or station-specific discrepancies, though current verification supports the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,726End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official observations from São Paulo’s primary meteorological station recorded a minimum temperature of 16°C on August 26, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-event forecast consensus and driving the near-certain 99.6% market-implied probability.**
Mild winter conditions prevailed with light northerly winds, moderate humidity, and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage that would typically lower overnight temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–16°C. Multiple model runs and station reports converged on this value, with hourly data showing the lowest readings clustered near 16°C during pre-dawn hours.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-event data revisions by INMET or station-specific discrepancies, though current verification supports the recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,726End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official observations from São Paulo’s primary meteorological station recorded a minimum temperature of 16°C on August 26, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-event forecast consensus and driving the near-certain 99.6% market-implied probability.** Mild winter conditions prevailed with light northerly winds, moderate humidity, and no significant cold-air advection or frontal passage that would typically lower overnight temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–16°C. Multiple model runs and station reports converged on this value, with hourly data showing the lowest readings clustered near 16°C during pre-dawn hours. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare post-event data revisions by INMET or station-specific discrepancies, though current verification supports the recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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