Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooling trend for Tokyo on August 28 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers, following recent daily maxima of 34–35°C. This atmospheric pattern, with southerly to northeasterly flow and moderate humidity, supports peak temperatures most likely in the 30–32°C range per ensemble guidance. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds, as small shifts in precipitation timing or insolation could tip the daily high between 30°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
31°C 32%
32°C 24%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
7%
30°C
20%
31°C
32%
32°C
24%
33°C
14%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 32%
32°C 24%
30°C 20%
33°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$287 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$39 Vol.
2%
28°C
$94 Vol.
4%
29°C
$309 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,396 Vol.
20%
31°C
$105 Vol.
32%
32°C
$536 Vol.
24%
33°C
$705 Vol.
14%
34°C
$15 Vol.
3%
35°C
$37 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooling trend for Tokyo on August 28 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers, following recent daily maxima of 34–35°C. This atmospheric pattern, with southerly to northeasterly flow and moderate humidity, supports peak temperatures most likely in the 30–32°C range per ensemble guidance. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds, as small shifts in precipitation timing or insolation could tip the daily high between 30°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,031End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooling trend for Tokyo on August 28 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers, following recent daily maxima of 34–35°C. This atmospheric pattern, with southerly to northeasterly flow and moderate humidity, supports peak temperatures most likely in the 30–32°C range per ensemble guidance. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds, as small shifts in precipitation timing or insolation could tip the daily high between 30°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,031End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a cooling trend for Tokyo on August 28 driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers, following recent daily maxima of 34–35°C. This atmospheric pattern, with southerly to northeasterly flow and moderate humidity, supports peak temperatures most likely in the 30–32°C range per ensemble guidance. Trader consensus reflects genuine uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds, as small shifts in precipitation timing or insolation could tip the daily high between 30°C and 32°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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