**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 28, 2026, most likely between 18–21°C, driven by an incoming rain system and associated cooler air mass.** Official and ensemble guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, Yr.no, and international models consistently show overnight lows in this range amid light to moderate rain (5–6 mm expected) transitioning to partly cloudy conditions. This represents a modest cooling relative to typical mid-August Beijing climatology (average lows near 20–21°C), with cloud cover and precipitation limiting strong radiational cooling while advection of slightly cooler northerly flow suppresses daytime highs to around 23–25°C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–21°C (with 20°C leading at 48%) reflects genuine ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction outputs for the precise overnight minimum, typical for 24–48 hour forecasts where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or timing of clearing can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical analogs for similar late-August frontal passages support this narrow band rather than extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 28?
15°C or below 51%
20°C 48%
17°C 47%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
15°C or below
51%
16°C
22%
17°C
47%
18°C
29%
19°C
40%
20°C
48%
21°C
32%
22°C
27%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
15°C or below 51%
20°C 48%
17°C 47%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
15°C or below
$37 Vol.
51%
16°C
$15 Vol.
22%
17°C
$10 Vol.
47%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$0 Vol.
32%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$26 Vol.
5%
24°C
$37 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 28, 2026, most likely between 18–21°C, driven by an incoming rain system and associated cooler air mass.**
Official and ensemble guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, Yr.no, and international models consistently show overnight lows in this range amid light to moderate rain (5–6 mm expected) transitioning to partly cloudy conditions. This represents a modest cooling relative to typical mid-August Beijing climatology (average lows near 20–21°C), with cloud cover and precipitation limiting strong radiational cooling while advection of slightly cooler northerly flow suppresses daytime highs to around 23–25°C.
The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–21°C (with 20°C leading at 48%) reflects genuine ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction outputs for the precise overnight minimum, typical for 24–48 hour forecasts where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or timing of clearing can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical analogs for similar late-August frontal passages support this narrow band rather than extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 28, 2026, most likely between 18–21°C, driven by an incoming rain system and associated cooler air mass.**
Official and ensemble guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, Yr.no, and international models consistently show overnight lows in this range amid light to moderate rain (5–6 mm expected) transitioning to partly cloudy conditions. This represents a modest cooling relative to typical mid-August Beijing climatology (average lows near 20–21°C), with cloud cover and precipitation limiting strong radiational cooling while advection of slightly cooler northerly flow suppresses daytime highs to around 23–25°C.
The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–21°C (with 20°C leading at 48%) reflects genuine ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction outputs for the precise overnight minimum, typical for 24–48 hour forecasts where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or timing of clearing can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical analogs for similar late-August frontal passages support this narrow band rather than extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$151End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Beijing on August 28, 2026, most likely between 18–21°C, driven by an incoming rain system and associated cooler air mass.** Official and ensemble guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, Yr.no, and international models consistently show overnight lows in this range amid light to moderate rain (5–6 mm expected) transitioning to partly cloudy conditions. This represents a modest cooling relative to typical mid-August Beijing climatology (average lows near 20–21°C), with cloud cover and precipitation limiting strong radiational cooling while advection of slightly cooler northerly flow suppresses daytime highs to around 23–25°C. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–21°C (with 20°C leading at 48%) reflects genuine ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction outputs for the precise overnight minimum, typical for 24–48 hour forecasts where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or timing of clearing can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical analogs for similar late-August frontal passages support this narrow band rather than extremes. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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