Persistent high-pressure ridging over the southern Plains, combined with southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, is sustaining a warm, humid airmass that limits overnight radiational cooling across North Texas. Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Dallas on September 8 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 80s°F under mostly clear skies and light winds, well above the early-September climatological average near 73°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 80–85°F bins, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that show only modest day-to-day variability in the nocturnal boundary layer. A slight shift in wind direction or increased cloud cover could allow marginally cooler readings near 80°F, while continued Gulf moisture advection would favor the upper end of the favored range; the next NWS forecast update and evening model cycle on September 7 will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 8?
78-79°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
86-87°F 49%
82-83°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
37%
84-85°F
35%
86-87°F
49%
88-89°F
12%
90°F or higher
19%
78-79°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
86-87°F 49%
82-83°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
$12 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$42 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
37%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
35%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
49%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
12%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure ridging over the southern Plains, combined with southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, is sustaining a warm, humid airmass that limits overnight radiational cooling across North Texas. Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Dallas on September 8 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 80s°F under mostly clear skies and light winds, well above the early-September climatological average near 73°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 80–85°F bins, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that show only modest day-to-day variability in the nocturnal boundary layer. A slight shift in wind direction or increased cloud cover could allow marginally cooler readings near 80°F, while continued Gulf moisture advection would favor the upper end of the favored range; the next NWS forecast update and evening model cycle on September 7 will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure ridging over the southern Plains, combined with southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, is sustaining a warm, humid airmass that limits overnight radiational cooling across North Texas. Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Dallas on September 8 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 80s°F under mostly clear skies and light winds, well above the early-September climatological average near 73°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 80–85°F bins, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that show only modest day-to-day variability in the nocturnal boundary layer. A slight shift in wind direction or increased cloud cover could allow marginally cooler readings near 80°F, while continued Gulf moisture advection would favor the upper end of the favored range; the next NWS forecast update and evening model cycle on September 7 will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure ridging over the southern Plains, combined with southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, is sustaining a warm, humid airmass that limits overnight radiational cooling across North Texas. Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate minimum temperatures in Dallas on September 8 will likely fall in the low-to-mid 80s°F under mostly clear skies and light winds, well above the early-September climatological average near 73°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 80–85°F bins, with traders weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that show only modest day-to-day variability in the nocturnal boundary layer. A slight shift in wind direction or increased cloud cover could allow marginally cooler readings near 80°F, while continued Gulf moisture advection would favor the upper end of the favored range; the next NWS forecast update and evening model cycle on September 7 will provide the key data for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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