**Current forecasts from multiple models (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) indicate clear to mostly clear conditions overnight into August 28 after a cooler, partly rainy day on the 27th, promoting strong radiative cooling under light winds and dry air.** This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 11–13 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even implied probabilities (44–44.5 %) clustered around those levels. Key scientific drivers include the region’s ~650 m elevation, which enhances nocturnal cooling; low dew points (roughly 4–9 °C) that limit moisture and allow efficient longwave radiation loss; and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing that would otherwise trap heat. Historical August 28 averages show lows near 18 °C, but recent cooler-than-normal conditions and the post-frontal clearing have shifted expectations downward. Model consensus places the overnight low near 12–13 °C, with small differences in exact timing, boundary-layer mixing, or localized effects creating the tight spread between 11 °C and 13 °C outcomes. Lower probabilities for 10 °C or below (40 %) or 14 °C+ reflect limited downside risk from further cooling and the low likelihood of warmer advection or increased cloudiness. Traders are pricing in this narrow, model-supported window ahead of final observational data from Madrid stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
11°C 45%
12°C 44%
13°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
10%
10°C
40%
11°C
45%
12°C
44%
13°C
44%
14°C
19%
15°C
43%
16°C
43%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
3%
11°C 45%
12°C 44%
13°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$69 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
43%
16°C
$0 Vol.
43%
17°C
$20 Vol.
8%
18°C
$5 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) indicate clear to mostly clear conditions overnight into August 28 after a cooler, partly rainy day on the 27th, promoting strong radiative cooling under light winds and dry air.** This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 11–13 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even implied probabilities (44–44.5 %) clustered around those levels.
Key scientific drivers include the region’s ~650 m elevation, which enhances nocturnal cooling; low dew points (roughly 4–9 °C) that limit moisture and allow efficient longwave radiation loss; and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing that would otherwise trap heat. Historical August 28 averages show lows near 18 °C, but recent cooler-than-normal conditions and the post-frontal clearing have shifted expectations downward.
Model consensus places the overnight low near 12–13 °C, with small differences in exact timing, boundary-layer mixing, or localized effects creating the tight spread between 11 °C and 13 °C outcomes. Lower probabilities for 10 °C or below (40 %) or 14 °C+ reflect limited downside risk from further cooling and the low likelihood of warmer advection or increased cloudiness. Traders are pricing in this narrow, model-supported window ahead of final observational data from Madrid stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) indicate clear to mostly clear conditions overnight into August 28 after a cooler, partly rainy day on the 27th, promoting strong radiative cooling under light winds and dry air.** This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 11–13 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even implied probabilities (44–44.5 %) clustered around those levels.
Key scientific drivers include the region’s ~650 m elevation, which enhances nocturnal cooling; low dew points (roughly 4–9 °C) that limit moisture and allow efficient longwave radiation loss; and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing that would otherwise trap heat. Historical August 28 averages show lows near 18 °C, but recent cooler-than-normal conditions and the post-frontal clearing have shifted expectations downward.
Model consensus places the overnight low near 12–13 °C, with small differences in exact timing, boundary-layer mixing, or localized effects creating the tight spread between 11 °C and 13 °C outcomes. Lower probabilities for 10 °C or below (40 %) or 14 °C+ reflect limited downside risk from further cooling and the low likelihood of warmer advection or increased cloudiness. Traders are pricing in this narrow, model-supported window ahead of final observational data from Madrid stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) indicate clear to mostly clear conditions overnight into August 28 after a cooler, partly rainy day on the 27th, promoting strong radiative cooling under light winds and dry air.** This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 11–13 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even implied probabilities (44–44.5 %) clustered around those levels. Key scientific drivers include the region’s ~650 m elevation, which enhances nocturnal cooling; low dew points (roughly 4–9 °C) that limit moisture and allow efficient longwave radiation loss; and minimal cloud cover or wind mixing that would otherwise trap heat. Historical August 28 averages show lows near 18 °C, but recent cooler-than-normal conditions and the post-frontal clearing have shifted expectations downward. Model consensus places the overnight low near 12–13 °C, with small differences in exact timing, boundary-layer mixing, or localized effects creating the tight spread between 11 °C and 13 °C outcomes. Lower probabilities for 10 °C or below (40 %) or 14 °C+ reflect limited downside risk from further cooling and the low likelihood of warmer advection or increased cloudiness. Traders are pricing in this narrow, model-supported window ahead of final observational data from Madrid stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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