Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models point to a minimum temperature near 13°C in Madrid on August 28 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, enabling strong nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs around 26°C. This setup, following recent showers and a cooler air mass, favors the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14°C, with subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speeds across model runs determining whether dew points support a dip to 12°C or hold near 13–14°C. Historical August lows average near 18°C, underscoring how this transient pattern drives the observed trader consensus on these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
12°C 45%
16°C 44%
13°C 44%
11°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
10%
10°C
41%
11°C
43%
12°C
45%
13°C
44%
14°C
43%
15°C
43%
16°C
44%
17°C
10%
18°C
10%
19°C or higher
3%
12°C 45%
16°C 44%
13°C 44%
11°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$69 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
41%
11°C
$0 Vol.
43%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
43%
15°C
$0 Vol.
43%
16°C
$0 Vol.
44%
17°C
$20 Vol.
10%
18°C
$5 Vol.
10%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models point to a minimum temperature near 13°C in Madrid on August 28 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, enabling strong nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs around 26°C. This setup, following recent showers and a cooler air mass, favors the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14°C, with subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speeds across model runs determining whether dew points support a dip to 12°C or hold near 13–14°C. Historical August lows average near 18°C, underscoring how this transient pattern drives the observed trader consensus on these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models point to a minimum temperature near 13°C in Madrid on August 28 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, enabling strong nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs around 26°C. This setup, following recent showers and a cooler air mass, favors the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14°C, with subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speeds across model runs determining whether dew points support a dip to 12°C or hold near 13–14°C. Historical August lows average near 18°C, underscoring how this transient pattern drives the observed trader consensus on these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models point to a minimum temperature near 13°C in Madrid on August 28 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, enabling strong nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs around 26°C. This setup, following recent showers and a cooler air mass, favors the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14°C, with subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speeds across model runs determining whether dew points support a dip to 12°C or hold near 13–14°C. Historical August lows average near 18°C, underscoring how this transient pattern drives the observed trader consensus on these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions