**Current forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to an overnight minimum in Tokyo on August 28 around 24–26°C, driven by lingering cloud cover, high humidity near 80–90%, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling under the influence of a moist summer airmass.** These conditions, typical for late August in the region amid Pacific high-pressure influences and scattered showers or thunderstorms, reduce the temperature drop after daytime highs near 30–32°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 25°C and 26°C reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud thickness and timing of any clearing overnight, with even small differences in wind or precipitation potentially shifting the low by 1°C. Historical August minima average near 23°C, but recent elevated humidity and urban heat effects support the higher range. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the date will likely refine this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
26°C 41%
25°C 39%
27°C 14%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
5%
23°C
9%
24°C
13%
25°C
43%
26°C
41%
27°C
14%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 41%
25°C 39%
27°C 14%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$86 Vol.
5%
23°C
$64 Vol.
9%
24°C
$59 Vol.
13%
25°C
$363 Vol.
43%
26°C
$185 Vol.
41%
27°C
$2 Vol.
14%
28°C
$6 Vol.
2%
29°C
$32 Vol.
1%
30°C
$37 Vol.
1%
31°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$217 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to an overnight minimum in Tokyo on August 28 around 24–26°C, driven by lingering cloud cover, high humidity near 80–90%, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling under the influence of a moist summer airmass.**
These conditions, typical for late August in the region amid Pacific high-pressure influences and scattered showers or thunderstorms, reduce the temperature drop after daytime highs near 30–32°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 25°C and 26°C reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud thickness and timing of any clearing overnight, with even small differences in wind or precipitation potentially shifting the low by 1°C. Historical August minima average near 23°C, but recent elevated humidity and urban heat effects support the higher range. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the date will likely refine this consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,192End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to an overnight minimum in Tokyo on August 28 around 24–26°C, driven by lingering cloud cover, high humidity near 80–90%, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling under the influence of a moist summer airmass.**
These conditions, typical for late August in the region amid Pacific high-pressure influences and scattered showers or thunderstorms, reduce the temperature drop after daytime highs near 30–32°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 25°C and 26°C reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud thickness and timing of any clearing overnight, with even small differences in wind or precipitation potentially shifting the low by 1°C. Historical August minima average near 23°C, but recent elevated humidity and urban heat effects support the higher range. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the date will likely refine this consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,192End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to an overnight minimum in Tokyo on August 28 around 24–26°C, driven by lingering cloud cover, high humidity near 80–90%, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling under the influence of a moist summer airmass.** These conditions, typical for late August in the region amid Pacific high-pressure influences and scattered showers or thunderstorms, reduce the temperature drop after daytime highs near 30–32°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 25°C and 26°C reflects model uncertainty in exact cloud thickness and timing of any clearing overnight, with even small differences in wind or precipitation potentially shifting the low by 1°C. Historical August minima average near 23°C, but recent elevated humidity and urban heat effects support the higher range. New model runs and updated observations ahead of the date will likely refine this consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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