Recent observational data through mid-August position the 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.4–4.8 million km², aligning with the two leading market bins. Persistent low extent since winter—sixth-lowest June average and record-low March maximum—reflects ongoing long-term decline, but a mid-summer melt slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from regional weather patterns has tempered further losses. Atlantic-sector deficits remain pronounced while Pacific ice has stabilized temporarily. Met Office trajectories and historical post-2007 analogs indicate the final value will likely fall in the 4.0–5.4 million km² range, with differentiation among bins driven by late-August and September atmospheric conditions, storm frequency, and regional temperature anomalies that control remaining melt rates and ice export.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 33.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 27.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 8.8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
34%
4.6-4.8m sq km
28%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 33.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 27.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 17.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 8.8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,910 Vol.
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,738 Vol.
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 Vol.
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,154 Vol.
34%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,969 Vol.
28%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,595 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,503 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data through mid-August position the 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.4–4.8 million km², aligning with the two leading market bins. Persistent low extent since winter—sixth-lowest June average and record-low March maximum—reflects ongoing long-term decline, but a mid-summer melt slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from regional weather patterns has tempered further losses. Atlantic-sector deficits remain pronounced while Pacific ice has stabilized temporarily. Met Office trajectories and historical post-2007 analogs indicate the final value will likely fall in the 4.0–5.4 million km² range, with differentiation among bins driven by late-August and September atmospheric conditions, storm frequency, and regional temperature anomalies that control remaining melt rates and ice export.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,985End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data through mid-August position the 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.4–4.8 million km², aligning with the two leading market bins. Persistent low extent since winter—sixth-lowest June average and record-low March maximum—reflects ongoing long-term decline, but a mid-summer melt slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from regional weather patterns has tempered further losses. Atlantic-sector deficits remain pronounced while Pacific ice has stabilized temporarily. Met Office trajectories and historical post-2007 analogs indicate the final value will likely fall in the 4.0–5.4 million km² range, with differentiation among bins driven by late-August and September atmospheric conditions, storm frequency, and regional temperature anomalies that control remaining melt rates and ice export.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,985End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data through mid-August position the 2026 Arctic minimum near 4.4–4.8 million km², aligning with the two leading market bins. Persistent low extent since winter—sixth-lowest June average and record-low March maximum—reflects ongoing long-term decline, but a mid-summer melt slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from regional weather patterns has tempered further losses. Atlantic-sector deficits remain pronounced while Pacific ice has stabilized temporarily. Met Office trajectories and historical post-2007 analogs indicate the final value will likely fall in the 4.0–5.4 million km² range, with differentiation among bins driven by late-August and September atmospheric conditions, storm frequency, and regional temperature anomalies that control remaining melt rates and ice export.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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