**Strengthening high pressure and suppressed onshore flow are the main drivers behind trader expectations for an 86–91°F high in San Francisco on September 9.** Recent National Weather Service forecasts project partly cloudy conditions with a high near 84°F downtown, while broader Bay Area guidance and ensemble trends point to upper-80s readings as the marine layer weakens and subsidence warming takes hold. A major forecast shift this week highlighted the potential for the strongest heat so far this year, with reduced sea-breeze cooling and possible lingering high-level moisture from distant tropical systems adding uncertainty to peak temperatures. Historical September averages hover near 72°F, so current model consensus represents a notable positive anomaly. Traders appear focused on the narrow window between official point forecasts and broader regional maxima, with resolution hinging on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official downtown station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
86-87°F 45%
88-89°F 45%
90-91°F 45%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
1%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
45%
88-89°F
45%
90-91°F
45%
92-93°F
15%
94-95°F
18%
96°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 45%
88-89°F 45%
90-91°F 45%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
$174 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
6%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
9%
84-85°F
$45 Vol.
12%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
45%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
45%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
45%
92-93°F
$53 Vol.
15%
94-95°F
$26 Vol.
18%
96°F or higher
$122 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strengthening high pressure and suppressed onshore flow are the main drivers behind trader expectations for an 86–91°F high in San Francisco on September 9.** Recent National Weather Service forecasts project partly cloudy conditions with a high near 84°F downtown, while broader Bay Area guidance and ensemble trends point to upper-80s readings as the marine layer weakens and subsidence warming takes hold. A major forecast shift this week highlighted the potential for the strongest heat so far this year, with reduced sea-breeze cooling and possible lingering high-level moisture from distant tropical systems adding uncertainty to peak temperatures. Historical September averages hover near 72°F, so current model consensus represents a notable positive anomaly. Traders appear focused on the narrow window between official point forecasts and broader regional maxima, with resolution hinging on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official downtown station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$420End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strengthening high pressure and suppressed onshore flow are the main drivers behind trader expectations for an 86–91°F high in San Francisco on September 9.** Recent National Weather Service forecasts project partly cloudy conditions with a high near 84°F downtown, while broader Bay Area guidance and ensemble trends point to upper-80s readings as the marine layer weakens and subsidence warming takes hold. A major forecast shift this week highlighted the potential for the strongest heat so far this year, with reduced sea-breeze cooling and possible lingering high-level moisture from distant tropical systems adding uncertainty to peak temperatures. Historical September averages hover near 72°F, so current model consensus represents a notable positive anomaly. Traders appear focused on the narrow window between official point forecasts and broader regional maxima, with resolution hinging on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official downtown station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$420End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strengthening high pressure and suppressed onshore flow are the main drivers behind trader expectations for an 86–91°F high in San Francisco on September 9.** Recent National Weather Service forecasts project partly cloudy conditions with a high near 84°F downtown, while broader Bay Area guidance and ensemble trends point to upper-80s readings as the marine layer weakens and subsidence warming takes hold. A major forecast shift this week highlighted the potential for the strongest heat so far this year, with reduced sea-breeze cooling and possible lingering high-level moisture from distant tropical systems adding uncertainty to peak temperatures. Historical September averages hover near 72°F, so current model consensus represents a notable positive anomaly. Traders appear focused on the narrow window between official point forecasts and broader regional maxima, with resolution hinging on the exact afternoon maximum recorded at the official downtown station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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