Recent short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS models indicate mild conditions for Toronto on September 9, with daytime highs near 24°C amid showers and thunderstorms, followed by overnight lows around 19–20°C under southerly flow. This pattern, driven by a passing warm front and elevated dew points, supports trader positioning near 19–24°C thresholds while the 42.5% implied probability on 24°C or higher reflects lingering model spread on exact minimum timing. Climatologically, early-September minima average near 15°C, so the current warmer anomaly narrows odds between mid-range outcomes and the 36.5% on 14°C or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 9?
14°C or below 93%
24°C or higher 86%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
93%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
26%
19°C
32%
20°C
27%
21°C
26%
22°C
49%
23°C
48%
24°C or higher
86%
14°C or below 93%
24°C or higher 86%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
93%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
32%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
48%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS models indicate mild conditions for Toronto on September 9, with daytime highs near 24°C amid showers and thunderstorms, followed by overnight lows around 19–20°C under southerly flow. This pattern, driven by a passing warm front and elevated dew points, supports trader positioning near 19–24°C thresholds while the 42.5% implied probability on 24°C or higher reflects lingering model spread on exact minimum timing. Climatologically, early-September minima average near 15°C, so the current warmer anomaly narrows odds between mid-range outcomes and the 36.5% on 14°C or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS models indicate mild conditions for Toronto on September 9, with daytime highs near 24°C amid showers and thunderstorms, followed by overnight lows around 19–20°C under southerly flow. This pattern, driven by a passing warm front and elevated dew points, supports trader positioning near 19–24°C thresholds while the 42.5% implied probability on 24°C or higher reflects lingering model spread on exact minimum timing. Climatologically, early-September minima average near 15°C, so the current warmer anomaly narrows odds between mid-range outcomes and the 36.5% on 14°C or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and GFS models indicate mild conditions for Toronto on September 9, with daytime highs near 24°C amid showers and thunderstorms, followed by overnight lows around 19–20°C under southerly flow. This pattern, driven by a passing warm front and elevated dew points, supports trader positioning near 19–24°C thresholds while the 42.5% implied probability on 24°C or higher reflects lingering model spread on exact minimum timing. Climatologically, early-September minima average near 15°C, so the current warmer anomaly narrows odds between mid-range outcomes and the 36.5% on 14°C or below. Updated model runs and official minimum observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions