Current ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models project an overnight low near 13–15 °C for Mexico City on September 9, consistent with the rainy-season climatology at 2,240 m elevation. Trader balance between the 6 °C-or-below and 16 °C-or-higher bins reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum: variable cloud cover will modulate radiative cooling after sunset, while scattered thunderstorms and high humidity can either suppress or enhance the nocturnal temperature drop depending on timing and intensity. Light variable winds and a weak mid-level cyclonic circulation add further spread across model runs. Updated guidance on precipitation coverage and sky conditions over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst shifting implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 9?
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 95%
11°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
6°C or below
95%
7°C
49%
8°C
49%
9°C
49%
10°C
49%
11°C
50%
12°C
26%
13°C
27%
14°C
27%
15°C
50%
16°C or higher
95%
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 95%
11°C 50%
15°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
7°C
$0 Vol.
49%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models project an overnight low near 13–15 °C for Mexico City on September 9, consistent with the rainy-season climatology at 2,240 m elevation. Trader balance between the 6 °C-or-below and 16 °C-or-higher bins reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum: variable cloud cover will modulate radiative cooling after sunset, while scattered thunderstorms and high humidity can either suppress or enhance the nocturnal temperature drop depending on timing and intensity. Light variable winds and a weak mid-level cyclonic circulation add further spread across model runs. Updated guidance on precipitation coverage and sky conditions over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models project an overnight low near 13–15 °C for Mexico City on September 9, consistent with the rainy-season climatology at 2,240 m elevation. Trader balance between the 6 °C-or-below and 16 °C-or-higher bins reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum: variable cloud cover will modulate radiative cooling after sunset, while scattered thunderstorms and high humidity can either suppress or enhance the nocturnal temperature drop depending on timing and intensity. Light variable winds and a weak mid-level cyclonic circulation add further spread across model runs. Updated guidance on precipitation coverage and sky conditions over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models project an overnight low near 13–15 °C for Mexico City on September 9, consistent with the rainy-season climatology at 2,240 m elevation. Trader balance between the 6 °C-or-below and 16 °C-or-higher bins reflects uncertainty in the precise minimum: variable cloud cover will modulate radiative cooling after sunset, while scattered thunderstorms and high humidity can either suppress or enhance the nocturnal temperature drop depending on timing and intensity. Light variable winds and a weak mid-level cyclonic circulation add further spread across model runs. Updated guidance on precipitation coverage and sky conditions over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst shifting implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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